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<channel>
<title>Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond publications</title>
<description>Economic research and commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond</description>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+Richmond</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2026 08:52:25 +0000</pubDate>
<item>
<title>When the Mortgage Becomes the Backup Plan: Debt and Disaster Insurance</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103503</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Debt crowds out flood insurance, as homeowners with little equity have less to lose from default, making their mortgage an implicit backup plan that substitutes for formal coverage.
Uninsured exposure is highest in the riskiest areas, precisely where flood damage is most likely.
After Hurricane Harvey, uninsured homeowners defaulted three times more often than the regular default rate.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103503</guid>
<dc:creator>Phan, Toan</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-08</dc:date>
<dc:subject>housing and housing finance</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>22</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Economic History: The Bank of North America</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103486</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[John Trumbull's "Surrender of Lord Cornwallis" is one of eight paintings depicting significant moments in American history hanging in the Capitol rotunda in Washington, D.C. It portrays the Oct. 19, 1781, surrender of British troops at Yorktown, Va., after the final battle of the Revolutionary War. While the foreground holds the action, the background is dominated by billowing black smoke from the charred, war-ravaged landscape. It's hard to know if Trumbull intended any deeper meaning, but there's no denying that the war's destruction clouded the future of the newly independent United States.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103486</guid>
<dc:creator>Wells, Matthew</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-07</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Financial Institutions and Regulation</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>Q3</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Econ Focus</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>How Much Does the US Economy Rely on Fossil Fuels?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103474</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Regarding aggregate gross output, the share of fossil fuel inputs is similar in 2024 to what it was in 1947.
The use of fossil fuels as an input in the production of gross output differs across sectors, as do the forces driving this use.
The aggregate use of fossil fuels is driven by two groups: the fossil fuel industry — which uses a large and stable share of fossil fuels — and service sectors that are growing in size, despite their decreasing intensity of fossil fuels usage.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103474</guid>
<dc:creator>Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Taylor, Jack</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Economic Growth; Production and Investment</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>21</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Opinion: Is AI Taking Over?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103418</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Artificial intelligence (AI) is taking over — at least in the popular press, the equity market, podcasts, and, increasingly, economics research. Richmond Fed economists are no exception, with many of my colleagues studying AI adoption and its implications for productivity and the economy. In this column, I'll take stock of what we know, what we can forecast from theory, what we can extrapolate, and the implications. In 1980, economist Julian Simon famously bet against biologist Paul Ehrlich in favor of human innovation over resource depletion and won. Will AI be the innovation that creates so much abundance that scarcity is irrelevant? Or will innovation make human contributions obsolete?]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103418</guid>
<dc:creator>Kovner, Anna</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-23</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Artificial Intelligence; Production and Investment</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>Q3</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Econ Focus</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What Businesses Are Saying: Surprisingly Solid Demand but Signs of Strain Persist</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103405</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Economic sensing provides us with real-time information on business and consumer decisions. These insights help us regularly keep a pulse on the economy, and they are particularly helpful in times of economic change, such as during the conflict in the Middle East. In this post, we draw from dozens of conversations with businesses from early May to early June.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103405</guid>
<dc:creator>Martin, Matthew; Bauer, Andrew; Haltom, Renee Courtois</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-19</dc:date>
<dc:subject>employment and labor markets; business cycles; Artificial intelligence; production and investment</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Regional Matters</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>How Much Financial Help Do People Give and Receive? Evidence from the Understanding America Survey</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103404</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Understanding America Study has added a module recording the transfers that respondents have given to and/or received from their family and friends.
The module includes information on financial transfers of wealth, along with in-kind transfers of services such as room and board or caregiving, and these variables can be linked to the broader UAS dataset.
In this article, we describe and summarize the variables in the new module. The data indicate that transfers are widespread, usually small but sometimes substantial, and most commonly from parents to adult children.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103404</guid>
<dc:creator>Jones, John Bailey; Kosakow, Jason; Zhu, Lillian</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-18</dc:date>
<dc:subject>business surveys; household and consumer finance</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>19</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>At the Richmond Fed: Researching Payments System Changes</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103403</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Federal Reserve has supported the smooth operation of the nation's payments system since its founding in 1913. It has done this by providing services directly — from distributing currency to processing checks and ACH, wire, and instant payments. It has also implemented regulations intended to maintain the system's safety and stability for all users. At the same time, the Fed has convened industry stakeholders and has worked with them to help the payments system meet the evolving needs of businesses and consumers.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103403</guid>
<dc:creator>Gerena, Charles</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-10</dc:date>
<dc:subject>household and consumer finance; Payments</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>Q3</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Econ Focus</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What Foot Traffic Reveals About Demand</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103402</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[How do economists measure sudden changes to demand and estimate how firms respond to those shocks? In manufacturing, factories and warehouses generate detailed records of production, making it easier to trace changes to supply and demand. But in the business-to-consumer economy — which adds more value to GDP than manufacturing and accounts for about one-third of U.S. employment — demand is intrinsically determined by the flow of customers, which is influenced by various factors.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103402</guid>
<dc:creator>Tan, Alexander</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-10</dc:date>
<dc:subject>household and consumer finance; Production and Investment</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>Q3</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Econ Focus</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Same Sector, Different Stories: How CDFI Credit Union Experiences Vary by Institution Type</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103387</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Credit unions are a keystone of community banking that date back centuries. Compared to banks, credit unions are cooperative in model, which means they are governed by their membership; they provide financial and depository services to members.

One hundred sixty-two community development financial institution (CDFI) credit unions responded to the Federal Reserve's 2025 CDFI Survey. This Regional Matters post captures responses across credit unions — including recent changes in demand, their capacity to meet new demand, and factors that limit their ability to expand financial services to more members. This post also highlights community relationships that have helped several respondents navigate roadblocks and expand banking and credit access.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103387</guid>
<dc:creator>Carpenter, Surekha</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-04</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Community Development Finance; Financial Institutions and Regulation</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Regional Matters</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Trends in Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, 1976-2024</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103386/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Using CPS microdata, 1976-2024, we estimate trend and cyclical components of unemployment and labor force participation for 44 age-gender-education groups. We fit a parsimonious state-space model in which each series is the sum of latent cohort and time-varying age effects and a latent cyclical factor shared across unemployment and participation, without imposing structural covariates. Aggregating group trends with observed population shares, we find that population aging and educational upgrading explain most long-run movements in aggregate trends, while cohort effects drive large gender differences in participation. Combining our estimates with demographic projections and an estimated cohort model of education shares, we forecast that over the next two decades, trend participation declines by about 1.5 pp and trend unemployment falls by about 0.4 pp, remaining historically low.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103386/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-28</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>35</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Labor force participation rate; Unemployment Rates; Demographic Composition; Age Effects</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-10</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21144/wp26-10</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Navigating Supply Shocks</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/103364</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Over the last several years, the U.S. economy has faced wave after wave of supply shocks.  
Conventional central bank wisdom says the Fed should look past supply shocks. 
This approach of looking through supply shocks has worked well for a generation thanks to what economists call “anchored long-term inflation expectations.”
I’ve been asking myself whether we’ve entered an era where supply shocks will become more frequent.
Does the Fed have the luxury of riding out all the waves that come our way? For me, it comes down to how much businesses, consumers and inflation expectations can take.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/103364</guid>
<dc:creator>Barkin, Tom</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-21</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Business cycles; Economic Growth; inflation; Monetary Policy</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Postpandemic City: Urban Employment Centers and Commuting in the Fifth District</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103363</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Employer-reported data through 2023 reveal a divergence in postpandemic commuting patterns across four large metropolitan areas within the Fifth District.
Washington, D.C., lost 1 percentage point of its metropolitan area's employment share to suburban destinations between the prepandemic period (2017-19) and the postpandemic period (2023), while Baltimore, Richmond and Charlotte all maintained or increased their cores' share.
Washington's losses fall primarily on high-earning workers and are spatially concentrated in more distant suburbs.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103363</guid>
<dc:creator>Pinto, Santiago</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-05</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Employment and labor markets</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>18</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Mixed Signals: A Housing Update for the Washington, D.C., Metro Area</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103310</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Richmond Fed monitors economic developments within the Fifth District. Recent changes in federal workforce employment and federal private contractors have motivated an ongoing focus on the Washington, D.C. metropolitan statistical area (D.C. MSA), which includes parts of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. Over the last 12 months, the federal workforce in the D.C. MSA shrunk by approximately 60,000 employees. Simultaneously, private employment in the D.C. MSA decreased by nearly 56,000 people1. With the decrease in the workforce, the region experienced a noticeable softening in the D.C. metro housing market from pandemic highs2. Listings and sales grew at very different rates, homes sat longer on the market, and prices dropped for an increasing number of listings — even as home prices remained strong.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103310</guid>
<dc:creator>Pessin, Taylor; Tringali, Anthony</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-21</dc:date>
<dc:subject>housing and housing finance</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Regional Matters</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Natural Beveridge Curve</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103309</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Beveridge curve is a central concept for analyzing the state of the economy and the labor market.
We introduce the idea of a natural Beveridge curve, which abstracts from transitory movements and focuses on structural relationships.
Analyzing the gap between the actual and natural Beveridge curves gives policymakers a better sense of how much stabilization policy in the labor market can accomplish.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103309</guid>
<dc:creator>Anderson, Katharine; Lubik, Thomas A.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-27</dc:date>
<dc:subject>business cycles; Employment and labor markets</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>17</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Modelling Unemployment Insurance in the Real World</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103275</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We create an economic model of unemployment insurance designed to accurately capture the life cycle of workers.
A socially optimal unemployment insurance program would replace 63 percent of a worker’s income for six months after termination.
This result bridges the previous disagreement between partial and general equilibrium models of unemployment insurance.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103275</guid>
<dc:creator>Trachter, Nicholas; Cooper-Ohm, Spencer</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-20</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Employment and labor markets</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>16</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Driving Through Economic Fog (Still)</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/103245</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[A year ago today, I stood before a group like this one and described navigating last year’s economy as trying to drive through fog. 
I can’t stand here a year later and tell you the fog has lifted. If anything, it’s deepened and spread. 
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been a critical part of the fog machine. Its capabilities are advancing dramatically. The range of possible outcomes is wide and it’s hard to see clearly through all the frenzy.
Then add in the fog of war. Oil prices have spiked. Supply chains have been disrupted. Uncertainty has surged. No one knows how long the Iran conflict will persist, nor what its aftereffects will be.
At our last meeting, with risks to both the labor market and inflation, and the outlook foggy, it felt prudent to hold rates and await more clarity on how we should be leaning to best support the economy going forward.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/103245</guid>
<dc:creator>Barkin, Tom</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-27</dc:date>
<dc:subject>business Cycles; economic growth; inflation; monetary policy</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Al Broaddus, Productivity Growth and Monetary Policy in the 1990s</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103241</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Former Richmond Fed President Al Broaddus made important contributions to FOMC discussions in the late 1990s.
Broaddus argued that a sustained increase in productivity growth required an increase in real interest rates.
With the possibility that artificial intelligence may raise trend productivity growth, this history from the late 1990s has renewed relevance today.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103241</guid>
<dc:creator>Wolman, Alexander L.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-13</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Economic Growth; Monetary Policy</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>15</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Technology Adoption and Optimal Policy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103233/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We study optimal policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous monopolistic competitive firms pay a fixed cost to adopt an exogenously growing frontier technology. Using Mean Field Games tools, we show that the optimal policy consists of two time-invariant subsidies: one correcting static misallocation, and one correcting the dynamic under-incentive to adopt. This holds outside of balanced growth paths, for any initial distribution of technology gaps. We analyze a version of the model that aggregates to a Neoclassical Growth Model with an S-shaped production function whenever complementarities are strong, and fully characterize when the optimal policy uniquely implements the first best. When it does not, two novel results emerge: the efficient allocation prescribes escaping a poverty trap—providing an explicit optimality foundation for a Big Push—and escaping an abundance trap, where dismantling adopted technologies is optimal. In both cases, a temporary, costless supplementary policy restores unique implementation.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103233/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Buera, Francisco J.; Trachter, Nicholas; Alvarez, Fernando</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-12</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>67</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>production and investment; development dynamics</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-09</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21144/wp26-09</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Community Development Financial Institutions as a Means to Overcome Market Failures</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103154</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Neighborhood and information externalities can lead to market failures, leaving communities underinvested and underprovided with financial services.
Community development financial institutions (CDFIs) can serve as a means of implementing government subsidies aimed at overcoming these market failures.
To spur positive externalities, however, CDFI investments must clear a critical mass threshold, which they do not appear to have been able to achieve to date.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103154</guid>
<dc:creator>Carpenter, Surekha; Grochulski, Borys</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Community Development Finance</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>14</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What Businesses Are Saying: The Impact of the Conflict Has Been Limited ... For Now</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103136</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Overall Momentum: Did the Conflict Cause Businesses or Consumers to Pull Back?
Firms demonstrated patience amid uncertainty. Business leaders shared that increased policy uncertainty over the last year had taught them to calmly wait and see. This meant paused investments for some, as they waited to see how the conflict would impact supply chains, input costs and demand.

Consumers continued to show resilience. Firms flagged a few cases of stress among middle-income consumers. Beyond that, however, firms were surprised at the lack of demand response to the conflict in the Middle East. Consumers kept spending even as they faced sharp price increases at the gas pump. These reports came from firms across sectors: retail, travel, manufacturing and banking. Some firms posited that larger tax refunds may have cushioned extra expenses. Big-ticket items like washers and dryers, which often reflect consumer confidence, saw negative impact. There were also a few reports of homebuying deals that fell through.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103136</guid>
<dc:creator>Martin, Matthew; Haltom, Renee Courtois; Bauer, Andrew</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>business Cycles; Employment and labor markets; Production and Investment</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Regional Matters</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Economic Outlook, May 2012</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/101606</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[One factor holding back this recovery is the lingering sluggishness in new home construction.
Another impediment to economic growth has been the deterioration in labor market conditions. A significant factor in this weakness has been the mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the skills sought by firms seeking to hire.
Finally, the array of changes in tax and regulatory policies — both actual and anticipated — has made it difficult for businesses to evaluate the profitability of potential investments or hiring commitments.
These impediments to economic growth are important, but they aren’t the whole story. There have been some positive developments. Business investment in equipment and software increased in 2010 and 2011, exports also increased in both of those years and the inflation outlook is reasonably good.
Improvement in labor markets is forecasted for this year and is likely to continue in 2013, nudging gross domestic product growth higher. However, the impediments to growth mentioned before, as well as the uncertainty surrounding Europe’s economic challenges and the United States’ fiscal issues, are still exerting a drag on the economy and are unlikely to be effectively addressed by monetary policy.
Additional monetary easing is unlikely to have much positive effect on economic growth, but could generate a sustained surge in inflation that would be costly to reverse.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/101606</guid>
<dc:creator>Lacker, Jeffrey M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2012-05-02</dc:date>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>U.S. Import Tariffs in 2025: Realized Tariff Rates, Import Prices, and Local Labor-Market Effects</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103055/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper analyzes the effect of the 2025 U.S. import tariffs on import prices and local labor-markets. To that end, we use highly disaggregated customs data to construct realized tariff rates from actual duty collections, rather than announced statutory schedules. An important contribution is that we document a large and persistent gap between the two measures, driven by within-country product reallocation, cross-country sourcing shifts, and implementation frictions. This implies that statutory rates are a poor proxy for the trade shock that firms actually faced. Using realized tariffs, we find that pass-through of realized tariffs into import prices was close to one hundred percent, with negligible adjustment by foreign exporters and a significant reduction in import quantities. When we examine local labor-market consequences of the increase in import tariffs, we find that counties which are more exposed to import-competing sectors experienced small declines in unemployment and that rising input costs weighed marginally on labor-force participation. Both effects, though heterogeneous across space, are economically negligible. In contrast to the 2018–2019 tariff episode, where rising input costs dominated, resulting in lower manufacturing employment, the 2025 tariffs did not generate large labor-market changes in either direction.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103055/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Titcomb, Jacob; Azzimonti, Marina</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-15</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>41</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Employment and labor markets; trade and international economics</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-08</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21144/wp26-08</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Pharmaceutical Onshoring in the Fifth District</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103037</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Virginia's Shenandoah Valley is known for its bucolic landscape and proximity to some of the country's most scenic wilderness. Amid the farms and fields, adventurers on their way to Shenandoah National Park or the Blue Ridge Parkway might be unaware, however, of the valley's long history in producing some of the most innovative medicines and vaccines used to treat diseases and illnesses across the globe.

Last October, that reputation received a boost when pharmaceutical giant Merck announced plans to construct a $3 billion, 400,000-square-foot facility in Elkton, Va., in the heart of the valley. The facility will host the firm's Center of Excellence for Pharmaceutical Manufacturing, focusing on the testing and development of complex medicines and pharmaceutical ingredients, potentially creating over 500 full-time jobs and 8,000 construction jobs.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103037</guid>
<dc:creator>Wells, Matthew</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-15</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4-7</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>production and investment; economic growth; trade and international economics; workforce develoment</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>Q1/Q2</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Econ Focus</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>President's Message: Communities Light the Way</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103036</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[For much of 2025, businesses faced extraordinary uncertainty. Major policy changes — from tariffs to immigration to federal spending cuts — arrived alongside geopolitical shifts and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI).

I likened running a business in such conditions to "driving through fog." With uncertainty high, business leaders didn't feel comfortable putting their foot on the gas nor slamming on the brakes. They didn't lean into investment, but they didn't necessarily cut back. They didn't hire, but they didn't fire either. They simply pulled over, turned on their hazards, and waited for clarity.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103036</guid>
<dc:creator>Barkin, Tom</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-15</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>1-2</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Business Surveys</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>Q1/Q2</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Econ Focus</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Features: Will AI Investments Pay Off?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103035</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Artificial intelligence (AI) is having a moment. In its Real-Time Population Survey, the St. Louis Fed found that 55 percent of people in the United States reported using AI as of August 2025. Stanford University reported that businesses adopted AI at a 78 percent clip in 2024, up from 55 percent the year before. This adoption rate exceeds those of personal computers and the internet at comparable stages.

In response to this interest, companies are spending billions on the equipment, research and development, and infrastructure required to accommodate the demand from businesses seeking to capitalize on AI's anticipated advantages. In fact, AI investments are now a larger contributor to overall economic activity than consumer spending, accounting for nearly 92 percent of GDP growth in the first half of 2025, the most recent period for which data is available. AI investments have also surpassed GDP growth attributable to the dot-com boom more than 25 years ago, both in terms of levels and share of GDP.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrrf/103035</guid>
<dc:creator>Wells, Matthew</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-15</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>10-13</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>artificial intelligence; Production and Investment</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>Q1/Q2</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Econ Focus</bibo:series>
</item>
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