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<title>Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia publications</title>
<description>Economic research and commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia</description>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+Philadelphia</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:23:56 +0000</pubDate>
<item>
<title>Is Mortgage Lock-In Responsible for Housing Market Tightness?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103512/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Elevated mortgage rates discourage homeowners from moving, as relocating triggers a reset of mortgage terms — a phenomenon termed “lock-in.” This paper examines whether elevated rates explain recent real estate market tightness: low transaction volumes, low time-on-market, and sustained price growth. Using transaction-level data, we estimate survival models of housing tenures — the probability of sale as a function of tenure and market conditions, including mortgage rate gaps. These estimates quantify missing sellers who have not entered the market because of elevated rates. We then calibrate a search and matching model measuring mortgage rate effects on buyers alongside seller lock-in effects. Results indicate lock-in causes sellers to withdraw, reducing transactions. However, buyers are more sensitive to mortgage rates than sellers are to lock-in, meaning a rate drop would increase sales volumes but not reduce market tightness.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103512/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Mangum, Kyle; Graybill, Aaron</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-10</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>52</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>mortgage lock-in; search and matching; market tightness; survival models</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-33</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.33</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Health Channel of Business Cycles</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103482/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We document that economic contractions causally worsen health among working-age adults and that poor health predicts negative labor market outcomes. These findings reveal a health channel of business cycles. To quantify its magnitude, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets where agents differ in their health, labor productivity, and wealth. The health channel captures the two-way feedback between pure health shocks — which raise the risk of downward health transitions — and other aggregate shocks, namely, demand and productivity. Our novel estimation strategy identifies the shock correlations, pinning down the health channel. We find the health channel accounts for 14 percent of employment variance over the cycle and 11 percent of the employment decline in the Global Financial Crisis.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103482/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Gordon, Grey; Khazanov, Alexey</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-02</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>71</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>business cycles; computational methods; health; heterogeneity; labor supply; general equilibrium</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-32</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.32</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>AI-Enabled Fraud Is On the Rise — Here’s How to Beat It</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103466</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[A February 2024 deepfake scam in Hong Kong, where an employee wired $3.2 million to fraudsters posing as executives, highlights a critical reality: AI-enabled fraud is on the rise. In the past year, about 79 percent of financial institutions experienced fraud attempts. As AI-driven attacks outpace traditional defenses, the core challenge is no longer flawless prediction, but the ability to buy time to respond before damage occurs. We argue that AI’s primary value in fraud prevention is not merely speed but its capacity to detect uncertainty early and deliberately slow down risky transactions, expanding the window for human judgment. This challenges the conventional "faster is better" mantra. We propose a structured, 90-day implementation plan to fight against growing AI-enabled fraud. By deliberately introducing friction and escalating uncertainty earlier, our approach could prevent more losses than perfect, real-time prediction alone.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103466</guid>
<dc:creator>Patala, Siddhartha; Jagtiani, Julapa; Rau, Raghavendra; Srivastava, Shivam</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-26</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>12</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>AI; cybersecurity; bank risk; cyber risk management; fintech</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Rising Burden of Homeowners Insurance in the Third District States</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103465</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Homeowners insurance is a type of insurance contract designed to protect homeowners from financial losses resulting from damage to their home, damage to or loss of personal belongings, or liability for accidents occurring on their property. Mortgage lenders typically require borrowers to maintain adequate insurance coverage to protect both the homeowner’s equity and the lender’s collateral. Homeowners insurance enhances household resilience and contributes to the stability of the overall housing market.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103465</guid>
<dc:creator>Algar, Victoria; Zhang, Sisi</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-30</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>9</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Recent Trends in Renter Financial Security and Homebuying Intentions</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103463</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This report examines renters' ability to make housing payments, the coping mechanisms they use to make ends meet, and their plans to transition to homeownership in the near future. Compared with one year ago, more renter respondents have managed to make their rent payments on time and in full. However, a greater share of renters report paying less — or even skipping — other debts or monthly bills, and a greater share reported cutting back spending. More renters reported a decline in their sense of financial security over the last year, and fewer reported planning to take out a mortgage in the next six months — in other words, to become homeowners. The share of respondents planning to take out mortgages fell from around 15 percent of respondents in January 2025 to 6.4 percent in January 2026. Declines were particularly acute among young adults (aged 18–35), those with children, those owning stock, and those with higher incomes.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103463</guid>
<dc:creator>Drayton, Matthew; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Akana, Tom</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>17</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Pricing-to-Market in Business Cycle Models</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103462/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We evaluate several leading microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms embedded in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by real and financial shocks. Across these frameworks, including the reduced-form Kimball specification, we identify a fundamental parameterization trilemma: Models typically struggle to simultaneously match empirically plausible producer markups, muted expenditure switching (low short-run trade elasticity), and the low exchange-rate pass-through needed to account for the business-cycle dynamics of prices and quantities. We provide an analytical characterization of this trilemma and quantitatively assess each model’s performance vis-à-vis a unified set of empirical benchmarks.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103462/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Drozd, Lukasz A.; Kolasa, Marcin; Nosal, Jaromir B.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-30</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>93</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>exchange-rate pass-through; pricing-to-market; real rigidity; international comovements</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-31</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.31</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Stablecoins and the Future of the Dollar</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpei/103430</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Since they exploded in popularity, stablecoins have been playing a growing role in the real economy.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpei/103430</guid>
<dc:creator>Abadi, Joseph</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-25</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>10</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Insights</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Local Economic Impact of Coal Mine Closures</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103422/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Falling natural gas prices amid the shale boom triggered a sharp decline in U.S. coal production, with over half of Appalachian mines shuttering between 2011 and 2016. In this paper, we use administrative data on mine activity and employment to measure the impact of coal mine closures on local economic outcomes. Using difference-in-differences, we find these closures significantly increased local unemployment and reduced jobs, wages, and output. We estimate a job loss multiplier of 2.0—substantially higher than in previous busts—likely driven by a rising local wage premium that amplified the impact of each lost mining job on the broader regional economy.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103422/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Scavette, Adam; Nason, David; Stephens, Heather</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-24</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>29</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Coal; Labor Demand; Energy Transition; Natural Resource Shock</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-30</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.30</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Quality Adjustment in Industry Deflators Strengthens Estimated Innovation–Productivity Relationships</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103326/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[How do investments in innovation translate into future productivity growth? Empirically answering this question is challenging. R&D spending is an observed input into the innovation process, but mapping it to productivity growth requires assumptions about the depreciation of R&D capital, gestation lags, and how well such expenditures capture true innovative effort (Hall, 2007). Patents, an alternative measure, capture successful innovations but vary widely in novelty (Kelly et al., 2021) and economic value (Kogan et al., 2017). Firms may forgo patenting to preserve secrecy, while others patent strategically to protect existing products even when their underlying innovations are marginal.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103326/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Atalay, Enghin; Hortacsu, Ali; Kimmel, Nicole; Syverson, Chad</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-20</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>20</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>productivity measurement; innovation</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-22</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.22</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Words of Economics</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpei/103321</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[To quantify how well economists respond to real-world events, this article looks at what they write about.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpei/103321</guid>
<dc:creator>Atalay, Enghin</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-28</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>16</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Insights</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Interchange Fees in Payment Networks Implications for Prices, Profits, and Welfare</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103315/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper develops a two-sided model of the payment card market with elastic consumer demand, merchant and network market power, ad valorem interchange fees, cardholder rewards and cash as an alternative payment method. Drawing on insights from public finance, we define a credit card tax—an endogenous wedge between consumer and merchant prices generated by interchange fees, rewards, and credit card adoption. We show how this tax affects equilibrium prices, platform profits and welfare. Our analysis yields a novel and policy-relevant result: Contrary to conventional wisdom, capping interchange fees can increase equilibrium rewards when consumer demand is relatively inelastic. This, in turn, raises credit card adoption and intensifies cross-subsidization, benefiting card users, potentially at the expense of cash users. By contrast, when demand is more elastic, fee caps reduce rewards and card usage, improving outcomes for both groups. We also characterize the conditions under which interchange fee caps enhance allocative efficiency and encourage socially desirable payment choices. Overall, the paper offers new theoretical insights into the regulation of two-sided payment markets.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103315/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Zhang, Yin; Serfes, Konstantinos; Hunt, Robert M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-28</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>62</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>credit cards; two-sided networks; merchant competition; interchange fees; regulation</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-29</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.29</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Rental Prices and the Cost of Living in the United States, 1914–2006</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103311/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Rent of Primary Residence (RoPR) series constructed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics implies that nominal rental prices increased by just 2.6 percent per year from 1914 to 2006 while overall prices grew by 3.3 percent. We show that this “falling real rents” puzzle can be explained by the evolving treatment of shelter in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In this paper, we construct a new, methodologically consistent shelter price series using the Historical Housing Prices (HHP) Project rental index. We also construct a revised set of shelter weights going back to 1914 and combine it with the price series to create an alternate CPI that applies the owners’ equivalent rent concept of shelter consistently across time. The HHP shelter price series increases by a factor of 28.4 (compared with the 10.7 increase in RoPR) and lifts average CPI growth from 3.3 percent to 3.6 percent per year. The revised series eliminates the long-run decline in real rents in the CPI and provides a new benchmark for assessing trends in the cost of living and real income in the United States over the 20th century.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103311/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Lyons, Ronan; Shertzer, Allison; Gray, Rowena</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-27</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>40</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Housing prices; rental indices; CPI; housing markets; cost of living</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-28</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.28</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Banking Regulation with Risk of Sovereign Default</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103190/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Banking regulation routinely designates domestic government debt as safe, even when this debt is risky. We show, in a parsimonious model, that this failure to recognize the riskiness of government debt induces domestic banks to “gamble” with depositors’ funds by purchasing risky government bonds and assets correlated with them. Sovereign defaults then result in banking crises; however, by permitting banks to gamble, the regulator lowers the government’s borrowing costs ex-ante. Thus, the government has an incentive to ignore the riskiness of the sovereign bonds. We derive a set of testable implications and present supporting empirical evidence from sovereign debt crises in Russia, Argentina, and the Eurozone.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103190/original</guid>
<dc:creator>D'Erasmo, Pablo; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-11</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>50</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Banking; Sovereign default; Prudential regulation; Financial crisis</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-25</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.25</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Evolution of the Corporate Bond Market: A Theoretical Analysis</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103286/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We develop a model of a dealer-intermediated over-the-counter market designed to study three major changes in the structure of the U.S. corporate bond market: the increase in dealers’ balance sheet costs, the emergence of electronic trading platforms, and the growing presence of bond mutual funds and ETFs. Our model provides a unified analysis of these changes, clarifies the economic channels at play, and allows us to quantify their effects on a variety of market outcomes. Our quantitative analysis suggests that, while electronic trading significantly reduced the cost of raising capital in the corporate bond market, these gains were almost completely offset by the combined effects of balance sheet costs and changes in the demand for liquidity. We find that electronic trading also caused a meaningful decline in the bid-ask spread, whereas other changes in the market structure had little effect on transaction costs.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103286/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Üslü, Semih; Kargar, Mahyar; Lester, Benjamin; Weill, Pierre-Olivier</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-21</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>39</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Over-the-counter markets; corporate bond market liquidity; dealer intermediation; balance sheet costs; electronic trading platforms</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-27</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.27</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Navigating Uncertainty:  Inflation, Labor Markets,  and the Stance of Monetary Policy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpsp/103276</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Philadelphia Fed President and CEO Anna Paulson shared her perspective on the economic outlook in a keynote speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2026 Financial Markets Conference in Amelia Island, FL.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpsp/103276</guid>
<dc:creator>Paulson, Anna L.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-19</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>7</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Fast Locations and Slowing Mobility</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103268/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper shows the declining trend in internal migration in the United States is primarily due to increasing home attachment in “fast locations,” areas with relatively high rates of population turnover. These locations were population growth destinations in the 20th century, with transient populations that settled as regional population growth converged. The qualitative patterns of the U.S. experience can be generated by a model of location choice in heterogeneous regions with overlapping generations when the population has a home bias that varies endogenously with the history of population change. Using a novel measure of home attachment, this paper estimates a structural model of migration that distinguishes moving frictions from home utility. Simulations quantify channels of the mobility decline. Rising home attachment accounts for much of the decline, predominantly in fast locations. Population aging explains most of the remainder but in a more spatially neutral way.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103268/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Mangum, Kyle; Coate, Patrick</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-19</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>85</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>declining internal migration; labor mobility; home attachment; rootedness; local ties; conditional choice probability estimation</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-26</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.26</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Flight to Safety: Evaluating Stablecoin’s Role as a Safe-Haven Asset in DeFi Markets</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103156/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This study examines the impact of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) on systemic liquidity across the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets, utilizing an event study approach that integrates on-chain wallet data, pricing, and financial metrics. By analyzing cryptocurrency market responses to key protocol and market-moving events, augmented by nonlinear volatility models, we identify distinct, chain-specific flight-to-safety behaviors. Our results show that USDT acts as a primary liquidity lifeline for Ethereum holders during stress, particularly among retail investors, whereas its role for Bitcoin holders is more muted and stabilizing. Notably, we find stronger flight-to-safety evidence in Wrapped Bitcoin (Ethereum-based) than in native Bitcoin, highlighting that USDT’s function is network dependent. These findings imply that effective regulatory frameworks must be differentiated, accounting for chain-specific liquidity, investor composition, and risk dynamics, as a uniform approach would likely be systematically miscalibrated.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103156/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Chernoff, Alan; Jagtiani, Julapa; Yoshida, Nathaniel</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-07</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>37</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Cryptocurrency; Stablecoins; Bitcoin; Ethereum; Tether; Flight to safety; BTC; ETH; USDT</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-24</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.24</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103152/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We assess the inflationary effects of fiscal transfers by leveraging advances in the identification of fiscal policy shocks within the recently proposed rotation-invariant time-varying structural vector autoregression. Our analysis suggests that fiscal transfer shocks account for a sizable share of the early post-pandemic increase in the price level through mid-2021. Thereafter, the rise in the price level is dominated by adverse supply shocks (especially supply-chain disruptions), while demand shocks mainly matter later for the lift-off in short-term interest rates. In addition, we find that fiscal transfers were essential for preventing a decline in real output per capita similar to the one experienced during the Great Depression.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103152/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Arias, Jonas E.; Shin, Minchul; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-05</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>55</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>fiscal policy; structural vector autoregressions; identification</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-23</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.23</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Do Recent Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Overstate Borrower Distress?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103107</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Headlines about record-high auto loan delinquencies paint a worrying picture of American consumers under increasing financial strain. But how much of that picture reflects a genuine increase in distress — and how much reflects how we measure it? After considering several possible explanations, we focus on deconstructing the severe delinquency rate — the number of auto loans that are 60 or more days delinquent — to better understand what is driving the increase in this rate. We find that while the stock of severe auto delinquencies is rising, the flow of new delinquencies into this stage is fairly stable. A possible explanation for the difference between these two trends may be that account management (e.g., forbearance practices) for distressed auto loans has evolved. An open question is whether further adjustments will be made to these practices if the U.S. market experiences a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103107</guid>
<dc:creator>Zhou, Justin; Hunt, Robert M.; Santucci, Larry; Cheney, Julia S.; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>5</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Is Household Financial Health Improving?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103106</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In this CFI Research Brief, we use anonymized credit report data on consumer delinquency to assess the recent trajectory of households' financial health. Do recent improvements in consumer delinquency trends reflect strengthening household financial health, or are delinquency trends driven by other factors such as changes in the composition of borrowers? Using nationally representative consumer credit panel data and fixed-effects regression methods, our analysis points to a continued rise in the likelihood of delinquency, consistent with further deterioration in household financial health. This deterioration appears to be most pronounced for low- to moderate-income consumers, even as their debt burdens have declined significantly.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103106</guid>
<dc:creator>Doubinko, Valeria Zeballos; Bhutta, Neil</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>7</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>It’s You, Not Me – Survey Data on AI’s Impact on Employees</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103105</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[While the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on the workplace has received a significant amount of attention in recent years, the nature of that effect on employees and on the job market appears to be mixed among respondents to the LIFE Survey. Generally and across most demographic groups, employed respondents are very likely to disagree that AI is directly affecting their jobs or career opportunities. At the same time, they are very likely to agree that AI is affecting the job market as a whole]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103105</guid>
<dc:creator>Akana, Tom</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>How Quantum Computing Threatens Cryptography</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpei/103077</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Quantum computers may one day decrypt our data, but banks can mitigate this risk.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpei/103077</guid>
<dc:creator>Sanches, Fabio</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-21</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>10</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Quantum computing</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Economic Insights</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>International Currency Dominance</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103040/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We present a micro-founded monetary model of the world economy to study international currency competition. Our model features both “unipolar” equilibria, with a single dominant international currency, and “multipolar” equilibria, in which multiple currencies circulate internationally. Long-run equilibria are highly history-dependent and tend towards the emergence of a dominant currency. Governments can compete to internationalize their currencies by offering attractive interest rates on their sovereign debt, but large economies have a natural advantage in ensuring the dominance of their currencies. We calibrate the model to assess the quantitative importance of these mechanisms and study the dynamics of the international monetary system under counterfactual scenarios.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103040/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Sanches, Daniel R.; Abadi, Joseph</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-15</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>52</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>dominant currency; international monetary system; strategic complementarities; history dependence</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-21</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.21</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Time-Consistent Individuals, Time-Inconsistent Households</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103023/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[I present a model of consumption and savings for a multi-person household in which members are imperfectly altruistic, derive utility from both private and shared public goods, and share wealth. I show that, despite having standard exponential time preferences, the household is time-inconsistent: members save too little and overspend on private consumption goods. The household remains time-inconsistent even when members save separately, because the possibility of voluntary transfers or joint contribution to the public good preserves the dynamic commons problem. The household will choose to share wealth when the risk sharing benefits outweigh the utility cost of overconsumption.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103023/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Hertzberg, Andrew</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-13</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>63</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Time-Inconsistency; Savings; Families; Intra-Household Decision Making</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-20</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.20</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Why Is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Low?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103003/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We examine the recent slow growth in manufacturing productivity. We show that nearly all measured TFP growth since 1987 — and its post-2000s decline — comes from a few computer-related industries. We argue conventional measures understate manufacturing productivity growth by failing to fully capture quality improvements. We compare consumer to producer and import price indices. In rapidly changing industries, consumer price indices indicate less inflation, suggesting mismeasurement in standard industry deflators. Using an input-output framework, we estimate that TFP growth is understated by 1.4 percentage points in durable manufacturing and 0.3 percentage points in nondurable manufacturing and is slightly overstated in nonmanufacturing industries.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103003/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Hortacsu, Ali; Syverson, Chad; Kimmel, Nicole; Atalay, Enghin</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-07</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>78</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>manufacturing; productivity measurement; ICT</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-19</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.19</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
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