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<title>Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City publications</title>
<description>Economic research and commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City</description>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+Kansas+City</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:27:12 +0000</pubDate>
<item>
<title>In Recent Years, Inflation Expectations Increased After Oil Shocks and Stabilized Only Once Monetary Policy Tightened</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103507</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Historically, U.S. households’ expectations for future inflation remained anchored after an oil price shock without significantly tighter monetary policy. Since 2010, however, oil price shocks have led household inflation expectations to increase more persistently, and expectations have only normalized after monetary policy tightened. This recent experience suggests monetary policy may play a role in stabilizing expectations after a shock.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103507</guid>
<dc:creator>Glover, Andrew</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-08</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Building Credit with Rent Data: The Potential Effects of Rent Reporting on the Credit Scores of U.S. Renters</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/103480</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Including rent payments in credit scoring could affect the credit scores of a sizeable share of U.S. renters.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/103480</guid>
<dc:creator>Toh, Ying Lei</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>16</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:volume>111</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>5</bibo:issue>
<identifiers:doi>10.18651/ER/v111n5Toh</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Economic Review</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Is the U.S. Labor Force Nearing Its Peak?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103458</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Despite an aging population, the U.S. labor force has grown substantially from pre-pandemic levels. Thus far, strong labor force participation rates and immigration flows have more than offset downward pressure from an increasing number of retirements. However, the U.S. labor force is likely nearing its peak: Increases in participation rates are unlikely to fully offset headwinds from slowing immigration and continued aging.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103458</guid>
<dc:creator>Felix, Alison</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-29</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>3</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Nebraska’s Job Market Steady, but Uneven and Facing Uncertainty</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkne/103457</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Through the pandemic and the years that followed, Nebraska’s labor market has remained steady, though some new challenges have emerged and others have intensified.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkne/103457</guid>
<dc:creator>McCoy, John</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-26</dc:date>
<bibo:series>Nebraska Economist</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>How Will Drought and Groundwater Depletion Affect Irrigated Farmland Values in the Tenth District?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103429</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Irrigated farmland commands a premium relative to non-irrigated farmland due to capitalized infrastructure, access rights to groundwater, and superior yield potential. In the Tenth Federal Reserve District, this premium has been increasing over time and rising faster during droughts. Whether this premium will subsist in the long term, however, depends on existing groundwater reserves, local rates of aquifer replenishment, and continued efficiency gains in water use.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103429</guid>
<dc:creator>Cooray, Ayesha</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-24</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Irrigation; Farmland prices; groundwater scarcity; drought</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>“Future of Banking: Powering Progress, Protecting Trust” Conference Explores Implications of Technological Change</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103420</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[On May 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s “Future of Banking: Powering Progress, Protecting Trust” conference brought together more than 100 community bankers to discuss how technology is changing the banking industry. Panelists covered topics ranging from digital assets, fraud, and artificial intelligence (AI) to the future of the community banking industry.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103420</guid>
<dc:creator>Baker, Nicholas; Jacewitz, Stefan; Ahal, Samantha; Ziadeh, Stephanie; Marsh, W. Blake</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-06-22</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>3</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>banking industry; community banks; innovation; artificial intelligence; digital assets</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Income Source</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/101732/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We provide empirical evidence on banks' market power in financial services and its implications for monetary policy transmission through deposit rates. Banks with market power in financial services charge higher fees for their service and also offer lower deposit rates with less pass-through from monetary policy. We argue that this is the result of product tying: consumers must open a deposit account to access a bank's financial services. We develop and calibrate a quantitative model of the U.S. banking industry where banks generate non-interest income from services in addition to a standard loan-deposit model. Counterfactuals emphasize the importance of non-interest income for credit supply, financial stability, and deposit pricing.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/101732/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Gödl-Hanisch, Isabel; Pandolfo, Jordan</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2025-04-25</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>34</rdau:hasExtent>
<swpo:hasNumber>RWP 25-02</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.18651/RWP2025-02</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Research Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Resilience, Not Crisis, in the U.S. Agricultural Economy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103285</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Over the past few years, economic conditions in some segments of U.S. agriculture have deteriorated, raising questions about the longer-term trajectory of the sector and the viability of many farms throughout the country. However, the severity of current public narratives surrounding U.S. agriculture diverges from the signals apparent in underlying data.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103285</guid>
<dc:creator>Kauffman, Nathan; Kreitman, Ty</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-20</dc:date>
<dc:subject>crop prices; agricultural production costs; farm income</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Higher Oil Prices May Not Meaningfully Boost Oklahoma’s Broader Economy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkoe/103277</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Iran conflict has significantly curtailed global oil supply, causing a sharp increase in prices. This edition of Oklahoma Economist examines how elevated oil prices may affect the state’s economy. It finds that higher prices have boosted oil and gas firms’ profits, but several factors may limit broader economic gains for Oklahoma.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkoe/103277</guid>
<dc:creator>Cowley, Cortney; Farha, Chase</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-19</dc:date>
<dc:subject>oil supply; oil prices; natural gas; Severance tax</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Oklahoma Economist</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Determinants of De Novo Bank Formation</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/103246</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Technological changes appear to have primarily driven the recent decline in the formation of new banks.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/103246</guid>
<dc:creator>Myers, Forest; Jones, Stephen; Wilkinson, Jim</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-14</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>27</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:volume>111</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>4</bibo:issue>
<identifiers:doi>10.18651/ER/v111n4JonesMyersWilkinson</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Economic Review</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Deterioration in Farm Financial Conditions Remains Gradual</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103244</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Despite continued weakness in the crop sector, farm financial conditions have tightened only gradually, and stress remains limited. Loan delinquency rates remain low, average farmland values have been stable, and leverage in the sector remains modest. Direct government payments have limited losses for crop operations and provided modest relief, while strong cattle prices have boosted incomes in many areas.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103244</guid>
<dc:creator>Kreitman, Ty</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-13</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Nebraska Health Care Under Pressure: Increasing Costs, Consolidation, and Growing Demand</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkne/103157</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Health care costs have risen substantially since the turn of the century as an aging population’s demand for medical care increases.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkne/103157</guid>
<dc:creator>McCoy, John</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>health care; Medical care, Cost of; consolidation; aging demographics; rural hospitals</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Nebraska Economist</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Higher Oil Prices Will Likely Increase Severance Tax Revenues in Rocky Mountain States</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrm/103155</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Iran conflict that began in February triggered a historically large energy market disruption, leading to a substantial increase in oil prices. Although higher oil prices may present challenges for households and businesses, Rocky Mountain states’ budgets—especially Wyoming and New Mexico—stand to gain from additional severance tax revenue related to elevated oil prices.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrm/103155</guid>
<dc:creator>Rodziewicz, David</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Energy-price shocks; supply and demand shocks; oil prices; oil price shocks; oil supply shocks</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Rocky Mountain Economist</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Can Healthcare Labor Supply Keep Up with Aging-Driven Demand?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103115</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Demand for healthcare is growing rapidly as the U.S. population ages, with employment in caregiving occupations expanding especially quickly. Women and immigrants have been the primary workers filling these jobs so far. With female labor force participation now at all-time highs and immigration flows expected to remain constrained, healthcare labor supply could struggle to meet demand from an aging population going forward.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103115</guid>
<dc:creator>Cohen, Elior</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>healthcare; employment growth; job growth; women employment; immigrant employment</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation Through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/103021/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Historically high debt-to-GDP levels in the United States have raised concerns about future financial market stability and fiscal sustainability. We use high-frequency data and consider Treasury futures price changes within narrow windows around auction announcements to identify two distinct Treasury supply shocks: debt expansion shocks that capture changes in the level of public debt, and maturity extension shocks that reflect changes in the maturity structure. We find that debt expansion shocks raise yields across the curve by increasing term premia, leading to tighter financial conditions. These shocks crowd out private sector activity by reducing investment and production, particularly during periods of rapid debt growth. In contrast, maturity extension shocks steepen the yield curve while lowering credit risk premia and fiscal uncertainty. By reducing risk premia, these shocks stimulate near-term investment and production, even as higher long-term borrowing costs weigh on longer-horizon investment. We also show that the Treasury debt management policy can either reinforce or offset the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/103021/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Zubairy, Sarah; Bi, Huixin; Phillot, Maxime</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-10</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>79</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Treasury supply; shocks; debt maturity; term premium</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>RWP 26-04</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.18651/RWP2026-04</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Research Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What Are Stablecoins Used for Today? Estimating the Distribution of Stablecoins</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/103020</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Uncovering where stablecoins are held and how they are used in the financial ecosystem provides three key insights: stablecoins are rarely used for payments, stablecoin infrastructure lacks interoperability, and the stablecoin ecosystem is still predominantly tied to crypto finance.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/103020</guid>
<dc:creator>Noll, Franklin</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-10</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>5</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>stablecoins; cryptocurrency; payments; banking and finance</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Payments System Research Briefing</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What Explains Bank Asset Growth Since the Global Financial Crisis?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/102992</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Inflation, real economic growth, and mergers have been significant drivers of bank asset growth since the global financial crisis.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/102992</guid>
<dc:creator>Marsh, W. Blake; Jacobs, Joshua A.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-02</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>19</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:volume>111</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>3</bibo:issue>
<identifiers:doi>10.18651/ER/v111n3MarshJacobs</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Economic Review</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Sticky Prices for Inflationary Economies: A Tractable Linear Approximation to Menu Cost Models with Trend Inflation</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/102919/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[When inflation is low, the Calvo model is a good approximation of sticky prices. But when inflation is high, menu costs matter for macroeconomics. Drawing from recent work on mean field games, I derive an analytical solution to the menu cost model with trend inflation in response to small shocks. The solution includes dynamics of the value function, distribution of price gaps, and aggregate variables. Then, I consider a discrete time approximation that is tractable enough for use in standard DSGE models. Menu costs modify the usual Calvo Phillips curve with a single variable: the frequency of price adjustment. Accounting for the frequency matters in an inflationary economy; when trend inflation is zero, the term disappears. But surprisingly, the effect of trend inflation on the Phillips curve is first-order. The modified system is a function of the microfoundations and can be calibrated to match pricing statistics, a useful result even without trend inflation. Finally, I embed the price-setting block in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and show how menu costs and trend inflation affect monetary policy.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/102919/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Adams, Jonathan</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-13</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>93</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>State-dependent pricing; menu costs; inflation; Phillips curve; optimal monetary policy</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>RWP 26-03</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.18651/RWP2026-3</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Research Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>How Ricardian Are We?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/102918/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Estimates with new time series methods suggest households act as if they will bear only a fraction of outstanding government debt.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/102918/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Matthes, Christian; Adams, Jonathan</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-12</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>64</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Ricardian equivalence; government debt; Bayesian estimation; Limited information; structural shocks</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>RWP 26-02</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.18651/RWP2026-2</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Research Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>How Banks’ Technology Spending Affects Performance</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/102889</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Over the past two decades, banks have substantially increased their investment in information technology (IT) and data analytics. We estimate the dynamic relationship between IT spending and bank outcomes related to performance. We find that increased IT spending is associated with higher bank profits, increased income from deposit accounts, and lower loan default rates.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/102889</guid>
<dc:creator>Pandolfo, Jordan; Désiré, Thomas</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-06</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Catching Up or Falling Behind? The Pace of Income Convergence in Rural and Urban America</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/102876</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Slowing rates of income convergence suggest the relative gap between average rural and urban income could persist.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedker/102876</guid>
<dc:creator>Brown, Jason; Beckemeyer, Bobby</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-05</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>19</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:volume>111</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>2</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Economic Review</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>New Data on Card-Present and Card-Not-Present Fraud Rates in the United States</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/102822</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Recently updated data show that the card-present fraud rate of non-prepaid debit cards increased for transactions on single-message networks from 2021 to 2023 but decreased for dual-message networks—reversing a previous trend. The card-not-present fraud rate for both types of networks continued its upward trend. Cardholders’ fraud loss rates also continued to increase for both card-present and card-not-present transactions on both types of networks.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/102822</guid>
<dc:creator>Hayashi, Fumiko</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-02-25</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>6</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Card Fraud; payment cards; Fraud Statistics; Payment Fraud Rates</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Payments System Research Briefing</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Colorado’s Distinct Trends in Affordable Housing Development</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrm/102821</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) are among the most common financing tools for the development of affordable housing units. Over the past 15 years, the development of LIHTC-funded housing units decelerated nationwide but accelerated in Colorado.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrm/102821</guid>
<dc:creator>Sly, Nicholas; Rodziewicz, David; Munoz Henao, Juan David</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-02-25</dc:date>
<dc:subject>affordable housing; rental housing; tax credits</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Rocky Mountain Economist</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Break in the Link Between Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/102541</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Gasoline prices and consumers’ inflation expectations often move in similar directions. Indeed, the correlation between the two increased noticeably over the last several decades. In 2025, however, that relationship changed dramatically: Gasoline prices declined, while inflation expectations increased with the prospects of higher prices coming from tariffs. If the historical relationship had persisted, inflation expectations might have been 1.5 percentage points lower throughout 2025.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/102541</guid>
<dc:creator>Brown, Jason</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-02-20</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Mass Layoffs Can Disproportionately Disrupt Small Communities</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/102456</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The recent closure of a meatpacking plant in Lexington, Nebraska, raises questions about how mass layoffs affect nearby communities as well as the broader regional economy. After sizeable layoffs in similar communities, the local labor force shrank, employment declined, and out-migration increased. Overall, smaller communities have faced large, negative consequences from mass layoff events.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/102456</guid>
<dc:creator>McCoy, John</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-02-18</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
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