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<title>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) publications</title>
<description>Economic research and commentary from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)</description>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Board+of+Governors+of+the+Federal+Reserve+System+%28U.S.%29</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 12 Sep 2026 02:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
<item>
<title>Exchange Rate Transmission through Multinational Firms: Evidence from Japan</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103753/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We study an income-account channel of exchange-rate transmission using matched data on Japanese multinational parents and their foreign affiliates. During the sharp yen depreciation of 2021–22, we find that (i) foreign affiliates with greater exchange-rate exposure expanded their activity and generated more profits, with larger payments to their Japanese parents, and (ii) more exposed parents increased their average wages and shifted employment toward commercial branches and offices involved in sales, purchasing, and related business functions, with offsetting declines in other employment. A multinational firm model in which scarce parent-side support inputs are allocated between domestic operations and foreign affiliates rationalizes these findings. To study the aggregate implications, we embed this mechanism in a two-country general-equilibrium model with trade and multinational production. The model shows that moving foreign-market activity from exports to affiliate production reduces the domestic real GDP response to depreciation and shifts more of the external adjustment from trade and toward income earned abroad. Depreciation therefore need not generate a large expansion in domestic production.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103753/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Oh, Hyunseung; Ni, Bin; Kim, Ryan; Yang, Choongryul</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>102 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>exchange rates; multinational firms; current account; Japan</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>1446</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/IFDP.2026.1446</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>International Finance Discussion Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Flight to Affordability: Effects of Pandemic Rent Increases on Renters By Geography</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103752/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In the pandemic era, people moved from high-density, expensive areas to more affordable areas, putting upward pressure on local housing prices. We examine the geographic distribution of rent growth during this time and its effects on renters. We use administrative new lease data from RealPage and household-level data on rent and income from the American Community Survey. We analyze rents and incomes using Public Use Microdata Areas grouped in two ways: by prepandemic rent levels and by pre-pandemic rent-to-income ratios. Rents grew more in areas with lower pre-pandemic rents but not in areas with lower rent-to-income ratios, consistent with higher-income remote workers moving away from high rent areas to more affordable areas. Lower-income households experienced larger increases in rent relative to their income compared to the median renter. However, area-level rent-to-income ratios reflect both compositional changes in renter populations from mobility and changes in local rents. We highlight the need for future work to track affordability for the same households over time to fully understand pandemic era affordability trends.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103752/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Agnes, Isabella; Shalaan, Fatimah; Liu, Jessica; Tran, Michelle; Webber, Douglas A.; Troland, Erin</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-03</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>21 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>housing affordability; pandemic housing markets; remote work migration; rental housing</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-062</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.062</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103751/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Central banks monitor macroeconomic risk through two traditions: scenario analysis, regularly used since the mid-1990s, and distributional forecasting, practiced since the late 1960s. The two are complementary but separate: scenarios provide narratives without probabilities, while predictive distributions provide probabilities with limited economic interpretation. Treating baseline forecasts and scenarios as conditional predictive densities, and distributional forecasts as reference predictive distributions, places both within a common framework and clarifies their roles. The Scenario Synthesis assigns weights to scenarios consistent with the reference distribution, offering a practical and reproducible tool for risk assessment and policy deliberation under deep uncertainty.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103751/original</guid>
<dc:creator>West, Mike; Adrian, Tobias; Giannone, Domenico; Luciani, Matteo</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>52 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>scenarios; fan charts; growth-at-risk; model uncertainty; Bayesian predictive synthesis</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-061</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.061</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>New Forms of Money and the U.S. Monetary Aggregates</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103750</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The money supply is defined as a group of safe assets with stable values that households and businesses can use to make payments or to hold as short-term investments. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve measures the money supply using officially defined monetary aggregates, which classify assets according to their liquidity and function—a store of value versus a medium of exchange.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103750</guid>
<dc:creator>Payne, Kristen; Styczynski, Mary-Frances</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-04</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-09-04</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4150</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Which states are most exposed to tariff increases? A new measure based on the consumption channel</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103749</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This note examines the heterogeneous exposure of states in terms of their consumption of direct consumer goods imports, which is an important channel through which states are exposed to increases in trade costs such as tariffs. Building on the methodology that Hottman and Monarch (2020) and Hottman and Monarch (2026) used to construct a similar measure for U.S. income deciles and other demographic groups, we construct a new state-level measure using a recent year of data.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103749</guid>
<dc:creator>Hottman, Colin J.; Monarch, Ryan; Heyman, Nick</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-03</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-09-03-3</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4157</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Why Gold Didn't Actually Overtake Treasury Securities as the World's &quot;Favorite&quot; Reserve Asset</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103747</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In 2025, world international reserves held in gold surpassed foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasury securities (figure 1), a fact drawing attention from media and policymakers (Nangle, 2025; European Central Bank, 2026; Storbeck and Hook, 2026, for example). Should this be interpreted as gold overtaking U.S. Treasury securities in its appeal as a reserve asset? I argue that the answer is no, as a comparison of world gold reserves and aggregate foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasury securities is problematic for a couple reasons.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103747</guid>
<dc:creator>Weiss, Colin</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-03</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-09-03-2</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4147</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Revisiting the Forecasting Potential of Futures Prices</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103746</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Amid the largest global oil supply shock in history, oil futures prices moved up much less than many expected. The steep backwardation in oil futures from the Strait of Hormuz's closure sparked a spirited debate over whether futures prices were too sanguine about the risks of prolonged disruption. For institutions, including central banks, that use futures as a guide for market expectations of future commodity prices, understanding the performance of futures in forecasting is essential (Bernanke 2008, Baumeister 2023).]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103746</guid>
<dc:creator>Haag, Alex; Tinkham, Amanda; Hottman, Colin J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-03</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-09-03-1</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4171</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication: A speech at Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview, Washington, D.C., September 03, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103735</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103735</guid>
<dc:creator>Waller, Christopher J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-03</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>10</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Unlocking Opportunities for Workers and Entrepreneurs with a Criminal Record: A speech at the Second-Chance Lending Forum, Developing Evidence-Based Policy on Creditworthiness and Criminal History, Washington, D.C., September 01, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103724</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103724</guid>
<dc:creator>Barr, Michael S.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-09-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>13</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Pricing Risk Globally: Intermediary Constraints, the Dollar, and the Global Financial Cycle</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103716/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We study how increased uncertainty about U.S. asset returns affects global asset prices and exchange rates in a two-country model with intermediary balance-sheet constraints. Empirically, uncertainty shocks widen global credit spreads, appreciate the dollar, and increase currency risk premia. In our model, higher uncertainty tightens intermediary constraints and lowers asset prices, reversing the counterfactual asset price increase in frictionless models. Because constraints make net worth especially valuable in bad times, risk premia respond strongly to uncertainty shocks. This interaction allows the model to match the credit spread, currency premium, and dollar responses in the data.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103716/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Akinci, Ozge; Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-31</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>45 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>financial frictions; time-varying uncertainty; intermediary asset pricing</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>1445</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/IFDP.2026.1445</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>International Finance Discussion Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>United States of U-Star</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103715/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper estimates state-level trend unemployment rates (trend U-star) based on the trend components of unemployment inflows and outflows across unemployment durations. The estimated trend U-stars, particularly the portions attributable to long-termunemployment, have levels and dynamics that vary substantially across states. Long-termunemployment makes a relatively small contribution to trend U-star in agricultural states, but takes a larger share for Rust Belt states and several states in the Sun Belt. While higher educational attainment and population aging put downward pressure on U-star, the effects of industrial structure and labor-market rigidities are mixed. Using the estimates of state-level trend U-star, we revisit previous work on state-level Phillips curves and find that the estimated slopes of forward-looking inflation equations are driven bymovements in trend U-star rather than by cyclical variation in the unemployment rate.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103715/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Rudd, Jeremy B.; Ahn, Hie Joo</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-25</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>72 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>trend unemployment rate; natural rate of unemployment; unemployment duration; duration dependence; trend-cycle decomposition; nonlinear state space model; extended Kalman filter; Nelson–Siegel model; new-Keynesian Phillips curve</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-060</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.060</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Repo Markets and the Fed's Balance Sheet: Implications for Monetary Policy Implementation</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103714</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[As the Federal Reserve (Fed) navigates periods of balance sheet expansion and reduction, it has become increasingly important to understand how changes in the size and composition of Fed assets affect short-term funding markets. The overnight Treasury repo market is central to this relationship since it is a transmission channel through which balance sheet policy can affect money market conditions and, ultimately, the Fed's policy rate, the effective federal funds rate (EFFR).]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103714</guid>
<dc:creator>Anbil, Sriya; Ruprecht, Romina; Cordes, Lucy; Anderson, Alyssa G.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-26</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-08-26-2</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4069</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Decade of U.S. Cross-Border Payments Efforts</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103713</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[One of the goals of the Federal Reserve has always been the promotion of a safe and efficient payments system, and it consistently fosters such an environment by playing multiple, simultaneous roles, including as a supervisor of banks and financial market utilities, as an operator of payments services within the industry, and as a catalyst for payment system improvements.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103713</guid>
<dc:creator>Falcettoni, Elena</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-26</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-08-26-1</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4143</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>In Our Time:  speech at &quot;Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,&quot; an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming., August 28th 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103707</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103707</guid>
<dc:creator>Warsh, Kevin M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-28</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>16</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Limited Foresight</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103681/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We investigate Barro's random walk hypothesis according to which distortionary labor taxes should follow a random walk for any stochastic process of government expenditures, see Barro (1979). When agents experience cognitive discounting as in Gabaix (2020), they perceive government debt as wealth, and the random walk result breaks down except for knife-edge combinations of limited rationality by policymakers and the private sector. For these specific parameter values, the result can reemerge, but minor deviations from these knife-edge combinations lead to stationary equilibrium dynamics, reflecting the wealth effect of government debt. However, the dynamics turn explosive when policymakers discount the future excessively. Our results extend to other models with limited foresight such as Blanchard (1985), Weil (1989), or Woodford (2019).]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103681/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Bodenstein, Martin; Zhao, Junzhu</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-21</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>36 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>monetary policy; fiscal policy; limited foresight</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>1444</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/IFDP.2026.1444</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>International Finance Discussion Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Characterizing the Conditional Pricing Kernel: A New Approach</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103680/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[I propose a novel method to reliably estimate the conditional pricing kernel by incorporating conditioning variables. The VIX and the term spread are most informative variables for identifying state prices. The conditional kernel estimate exhibits significant time variation: the more favorable market expectations, the higher state prices in negative return states. During bad times, the equity premium implied by the conditional kernel is fully attributable to compensation for left-tail scenarios, in contrast to findings from the unconditional kernel. Lastly, the conditional kernel estimate yields superior out-of-sample option pricing performance compared to the unconditional kernel estimate.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103680/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Kim, Hyung Joo</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-24</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>57 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-059</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.059</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Beyond the Unemployment Rate: A Structural Labor Market Indicator</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103679/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Labor market variables frequently send conflicting signals about the degree of slack or tightness, often complicating policy assessments at critical junctures. This paper develops a Structural Labor Market Indicator (SLMI) for the U.S. economy that addresses the limitations of existing univariate measures or atheoretical statistical approaches that synthesize multiple labor market indicators but cannot distinguish between supply and demand driving forces. We construct the SLMI using a medium scale New Keynesian DSGE model featuring search and matching frictions, endogenous labor force participation, and variable hours. The model is disciplined by a comprehensive dataset that includes not only labor market variables but also other macroeconomic aggregates. The SLMI synthesizes model-implied gaps across multiple labor market dimensions using principal component analysis. We show that GDP growth and inflation provide substantial information about labor market slack beyond what labor market variables contain, validating our multi-variable structural approach. Relative to alternative measures, the SLMI often provides earlier warnings of deteriorating conditions at recession onset but recovers more gradually during expansions.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103679/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Pfajfar, Damjan; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina; Morales-Jimenez, Camilo; Ferrante, Francesco; Chung, Hess T.; Cairó, Isabel</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-20</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>42 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>search and matching; labor market; labor market slack</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-058</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.058</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Liquidity Transformation Risks in U.S. Bank Loan and High-Yield Mutual Funds: A 2026 Update</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103678</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Mutual funds (MFs) and other open-ended collective investment funds engage in liquidity transformation—they offer investors daily redemptions while investing in assets that may take longer than a day to sell without significant price impact. This activity is particularly salient for corporate debt funds, where large investor redemptions during stress periods could result in fire sales that adversely affect underlying markets (see, e.g., Goldstein, Jiang, and Ng, 2017; Chernenko and Sunderam, 2020; Falato, Goldstein, and Hortaçsu, 2021; Federal Reserve Board, 2025).]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103678</guid>
<dc:creator>Baker, Sean; Cai, Fang; George, Logan E.; Larsson, Erik; Anadu, Kenechukwu E.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-19</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-08-19</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4123</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Occupational Complexity, Capital-Skill Complementarity, and the Evolution of U.S. Wage Inequality: A Quantitative Analysis</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103645/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We document a strong, positive relationship between occupational problem complexity, measured from US data on problem-solving requirements, and occupational wage growth since 1980. In contrast, employment shifts toward more complex occupations have been modest, suggesting a race between the demand for and supply of complex skills. We rationalize these findings by formulating and structurally estimating a quantitative general equilibrium model on the granular occupational level. In our model, workers have heterogeneous comparative advantages in solving complex problems and physical capital admits capital-skill complementarity in occupation space. The equilibrium features Positive Assortative Matching of worker skills to occupational problem complexity, and the model quantitatively explains the evolution of the occupational wage- and employment structure over the last four decades. The model estimates uncover two distinct periods of technological change. Until around 2000, rising complexity premia were driven by capital-skill complementarity and declining equipment capital prices. Post-2000 patterns reflect supply-side technological change whereby occupations became more efficient in utilizing worker skills for complex problem-solving. Our framework helps unify distinct approaches to studying task automation and task augmentation on the one hand and skill-biased technological change on the other.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103645/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Kambourov, Gueorgui; Caines, Colin C.; Hoffmann, Florian</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-14</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>112 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>occupational task content; complex tasks; wage polarization; skills</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>1443</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/IFDP.2026.1443</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>International Finance Discussion Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Government bond-backed repo markets: between resilience and vulnerability</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103647/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper synthesizes the literature on vulnerabilities in government bond-backed repo markets, focusing on the features that contribute to both the fragility and stability of these markets. The literature shows that the same features that enable efficient liquidity provision, including short-term funding, dealer intermediation, extensive collateral reuse, and low haircuts, can also create channels for rapid transmission of stress. The review documents tight linkages between repo and government bond markets, highlighting how repos are key to the build-up of leverage and can propagate stress across funding, cash, and derivatives markets, particularly through dealers and nonbank financial intermediaries such as investment firms, hedge funds, and money market funds. Evidence from recent stress episodes illustrates how these vulnerabilities materialize in practice. The review also examines post-crisis regulatory reforms and central bank interventions, identifying how these measures have enhanced market resilience while also creating trade-offs for market dynamics, with implications for liquidity and collateral availability.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103647/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Samarina, Anna; Tamburrini, Fabio; Devigne, Lucas; Mamburu, Mulalo; Banegas, Ayelen; Nikolaou, Kleopatra</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-12</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>49 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>repo markets; government bonds; vulnerabilities; financial stability</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-057</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.057</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>CRE Development Potential and the Selection of Opportunity Zones</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103646/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Place-based policies are often caught between two potentially conflicting aims: (i) directing aid to needy communities and (ii) spurring investment. We study this tradeoff in the context of the Opportunity Zones (OZ) program. Leveraging unique phase-level microdata on commercial construction projects, we show that US state governors prioritized designating tracts where construction projects were already being planned. About two-thirds of the greater construction growth in OZs can be attributed to this selection. States prioritizing tracts with greater investment opportunities observed larger construction increases in designated tracts. We calibrate a structural model to quantify the effects of the program and examine counterfactuals under alternative preferences or eligibility criteria.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103646/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Kurtzman, Robert J.; Glancy, David P.; Loewenstein, Lara</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-07-17</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>55 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>opportunity zones; commercial real estate; construction; time-to-plan</dc:subject>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.056</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Private Credit and Leveraged Loan Markets: Similarities, Differences, and Substitution</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103644</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Private credit (PC) and leveraged loan (LL) markets are two key sources of financing for below-investment-grade middle-market firms, typically those with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion). Although these two markets have different structures and rely on different lenders, they have become increasingly interconnected in recent years, with some firms seeking financing in both markets.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103644</guid>
<dc:creator>Banegas, Ayelen; Kennedy, Will; Dobridge, Christine L.; Degerli, Ahmet; Castelo, Sophia</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-11</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-08-11</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4133</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Inflation Uncertainty and Endogenous Planning Horizons</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103617/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We develop a finite-horizon planning model in which firms choose how far ahead to plan when setting prices. Planning further ahead improves a firm's pricing decision but requires cognitive effort. We derive analytical solutions for a firm's chosen planning horizon and show that large and persistent aggregate demand or supply disturbances induce firms to plan further ahead, making inflation more sensitive to shocks and generating endogenous movements in inflation uncertainty. Quantitatively, we show that the model matches the positive relationship between the size of inflation forecast revisions and inflation uncertainty observed in the data.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103617/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Gust, Christopher J.; López-Salido, J. David; Herbst, Edward P.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-06</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>47 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>inflation uncertainty; finite-horizon planning; inflation expectations</dc:subject>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.055</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Price of Bank Funding Behind Private Credit: Evidence from Business Development Companies</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103616</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Private credit is often described as credit provided outside the banking system. In many cases, this description is accurate: private credit lenders originate loans directly to firms, hold those loans on their balance sheets, and do not rely on deposits in the way banks do. But private credit is not fully separate from banks.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103616</guid>
<dc:creator>Haque, Sharjil M.; Wang, Jessie Jiaxu</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-07</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-08-07</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4142</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Examining the Sensitivity of Regional Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103615</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), banking supervision and regulation became more stringent for largest banks, particularly systemically important institutions and those with at least $100 billion in consolidated total assets. However, the 2023 stress period following the default of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) highlighted that problems at regional banks, which we define as banks between $10 billion and $100 billion in assets, may also cause broader banking system stress.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103615</guid>
<dc:creator>Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Seay, Matthew P.; Achugamonu, Faith; Afanasyeva, Elena</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-04</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-08-04</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4097</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
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