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<title>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) publications</title>
<description>Economic research and commentary from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)</description>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Board+of+Governors+of+the+Federal+Reserve+System+%28U.S.%29</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2026 13:30:19 +0000</pubDate>
<item>
<title>Pretend or Amend? On Evergreening in CRE</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103198/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Loan modifications can either amplify or mitigate credit losses depending on the strategy lenders employ.  Using detailed supervisory data and a model accounting for competing extension motivations (temporary repayment difficulties, foreclosure costs, and loss recognition costs), I assess why banks extend CRE loans.  I find that extensions predominantly address temporary payment frictions, both in normal times and following the Spring 2023 bank stress episode. Contrary to banks "extending-and-pretending" during that episode, banks increased income and principal paydown requirements for extensions, contributing to strong ex-post performance for extended loans.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103198/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Glancy, David P.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>73 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>nonresidential real estate; loan delinquency; foreclosures; credit risk; commercial lending</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-025</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.025</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Effect of the Federal Reserve on the Stock Market: Magnitudes, Channels and Shocks</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103197/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We survey and extend work on the Federal Reserve’s effect on the stock market, focusing on three empirical findings: The effect of monetary policy surprises in a narrow window around announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the pre-FOMC announcement drift, and the FOMC cycle in stock returns. We discuss the magnitude of the Fed’s impact (directional effects or effects on average stock returns), the types of shocks coming from the Fed (pure monetary policy shocks, reaction function news, or information about the Fed’s view of the economy), and the asset pricing channels through which effects emerge (an equity premia for news from the Fed, or changes to yields, equity premia, or expected dividends). We also consider the information transmission (communication) channels. The Fed’s effect on the stock market is large, even for average stock returns earned over periods of several decades. Fed-induced changes to both yields and equity premia play substantial roles, with less direct evidence available regarding cash flows. For stocks, reaction function news appears to be more important than Fed information effects. Communication flows outside announcements windows are important.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103197/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Knox, Benjamin; Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>29 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>asset pricing; monetary policy transmission; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); monetary policy communication; risk premiums</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-023</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.023</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Financial Well-being and Inclusion of Justice Involved Populations: Evidence from the SHED</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103196/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This study examines financial challenges faced by justice-involved individuals using 2023-2024 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking data. Individuals with justice system contact experience substantially worse financial outcomes than those without criminal records, with disparities widening by severity of involvement. Compared to individuals with no prior records, those arrested but not convicted are 4 percentage points less likely to report doing at least okay financially, while formerly convicted as well as incarcerated adults are 15 percentage points less likely. Formerly incarcerated individuals are also 21 percentage points less likely to have credit scores above 660 and 13 percentage points less likely to have credit cards. These disparities mirror patterns observed across education levels, where adults with lower educational attainment experience lower financial well-being and inclusion. Our findings document substantial barriers to financial stability among justice-involved populations and may inform policies promoting financial inclusion and improving economic outcomes for this group.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103196/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Fernandez, Jennifer; Lloro, Alicia; Dasgupta, Kabir</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>23 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>consumer credit reports; consumer credit scoring; discrimination; economic inclusion</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-024</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.024</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Price-Segmented Beliefs and the U.S. Housing Boom</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103195/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper shows that expected capital gains in several MSAs were higher for relatively lower-priced, rather than higher-priced, houses during the U.S. boom of the 2000s. Because buyers of lower-priced houses tend to be more sensitive to credit conditions than buyers of higher-priced houses, this paper documents patterns that are consistent with an interaction of beliefs and loose credit conditions in a time period where direct evidence on house price beliefs is scarce. Documenting this interaction is important for unifying beliefs and credit conditions as joint, instead of competing, explanations for the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103195/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Jacobson, Margaret M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>14 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>real estate market; subprime lending; consumer finance</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-025</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.022</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tariffs and Goods-Market Search Frictions</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103194/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We study tariffs in a general equilibrium dynamic model with search frictions between heterogeneous exporting producers and importing retailers. We show the model has a unique equilibrium and analytically characterize home unilateral import tariffs that maximize welfare given a passive foreign country. Search frictions add two terms to the standard optimal tariff expression: One lowers tariffs when contact rates are low; another when private export costs exceed social opportunity costs. Search frictions also introduce new incentives to subsidize imports due to market thickness effects. We calibrate our baseline to U.S. and Chinese 2016 data. We compare this baseline to a counterfactual with international search costs reduced to domestic levels but with all other parameters fixed. We find that higher baseline search costs reduce optimal U.S. unilateral and Nash tariffs and attenuate welfare responses to tariff changes.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103194/original</guid>
<dc:creator>McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>99 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>international trade; trade policy; search and matching models; general equilibrium models; welfare economics</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>1437</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/IFDP.2026.1437</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>International Finance Discussion Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Banks in the Age of Stablecoins: Lessons from Their Historical Responses to Financial Innovations</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103193</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The expansion of stablecoins has moved digital payment tokens from the periphery of financial markets to the center of policy discussions. With a global market capitalization in the mid-hundreds of billions of dollars and annual settlement volumes in the trillions as of 2025, stablecoins are increasingly viewed not merely as crypto‐market infrastructure but as potential competitors to traditional transaction accounts, particularly in payment processing, settlement functionality, and as short-term stores of value for transaction balances.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103193</guid>
<dc:creator>Perez-Sangimino, JP; Wang, Jessie Jiaxu; Hempel, Samuel J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-01-1</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4017</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Monitoring High Credit Growth: The Link Between Local Deposits and CRE Lending</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103192</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Outstanding mortgage debt in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector totaled $6 trillion at the end of 2024 including owner-occupied and nonowner-occupied real estate, multifamily mortgages, and loans backed by acquisition, development, and construction projects. Banks hold half of all CRE debt, with regional and small institutions (under $100 billion in assets) collectively accounting for a larger share of this lending than their larger counterparts with assets over $100 billion.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103192</guid>
<dc:creator>Lopez Cruz, Dulce; Yorozu, Toshihide; Paligorova, Teodora</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-01-2</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4039</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Wage and Income Growth Expectations Before, During, and After the Pandemic Period</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103191</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Inflation expectations are understood to play a crucial role in inflation dynamics and in the conduct of monetary policy. Recently, there has also been a renewed interest in the relationship between inflation expectations and wages.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103191</guid>
<dc:creator>Salter, Corinne; Villar Vallenas, Daniel</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-13</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-13</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4038</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Perspectives on Tokenization and Implications for the Financial System: A speech at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Conference on Digital Assets, Dakar, Senegal., May 8, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103180</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103180</guid>
<dc:creator>Cook, Lisa D.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>17</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Coordinated Approach to Consumer Fraud Protection: A speech at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium, Washington, D.C., May 5, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103153</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103153</guid>
<dc:creator>Bowman, Michelle W.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-05</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>8</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Artificial Intelligence in the Financial System: A speech at the Financial Stability Oversight Council Artificial Intelligence Series Roundtable on Cybersecurity and Risk Management, Washington, D.C., May 1, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103137</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103137</guid>
<dc:creator>Bowman, Michelle W.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>7</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Modernizing Federal Reserve Operations in the 21st Century: A speech at The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., April 21, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103076</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103076</guid>
<dc:creator>Waller, Christopher J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-21</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>14</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Monetary Policy under Multiple Financing Constraints</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103075/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We revisit the credit channel of monetary policy when firms face multiple financing constraints. Our theory shows that the multiplicity of constraints dampens the transmission of expansionary policy to firm borrowing and investment notably but amplifies the transmission of policy tightening. This asymmetry arises because, when policy tightens (eases), the most (least) responsive constraint binds. Using U.S. firm-level data and exploiting a quasi-natural experiment, we find strong support for these predictions. Embedding the mechanism into a New Keynesian framework, we find that the drop in investment after contractionary shocks is twice as large as its increase following equally-sized expansionary shocks.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103075/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Pérez-Orive, Ander; Van der Ghote, Alejandro; Timmer, Yannick</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>59 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Monetary policy transmission; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models; Business investment</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-021</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.021</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Labor force growth, breakeven employment, and potential GDP growth</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103074</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Labor force growth has been slowing and could be near-zero starting this year, driven by weak population growth reflecting low net immigration and by declining labor force participation reflecting population aging. Such weak growth in the labor force is unprecedented in the United States' recent history. In this note we highlight two significant implications of near-zero labor force growth: First, near-zero labor force growth implies that breakeven employment growth (i.e. the pace needed to maintain a steady unemployment rate) would also be near-zero—making negative job growth almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month. Second, it implies that any growth in potential GDP will need to come entirely from productivity growth. These features would represent a significant shift in U.S. labor market dynamics and the composition of economic growth.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103074</guid>
<dc:creator>Vidangos, Ivan; Murray, Seth</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-02</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-02</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4045</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Monitoring AI Adoption in the U.S. Economy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103073</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This note uses three publicly available surveys with complementary target respondents to examine trends in AI adoption in the U.S. through 2025. Business survey data from the Census Bureau show that about 18 percent of firms have adopted AI as of year-end 2025.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103073</guid>
<dc:creator>Allen, Jeffrey S.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-03</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-03</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4032</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103072</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This note examines recent developments in the stablecoin industry and their implications for financial stability. During 2025, stablecoins have grown by about 50 percent in terms of market capitalization, with transaction volume and use in DeFi protocols also surging.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103072</guid>
<dc:creator>Carapella, Francesca; Vardoulakis, Alexandros; Lubis, Arazi</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-08-2</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4020</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time – Part II</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103071</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Major changes in U.S. trade policy last year have led to a surge of interest in the timely assessment of the economic effects of tariffs. Minton and Somale (2025) developed a methodology to detect tariff effects on consumer prices in real time that relies solely on publicly available data.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103071</guid>
<dc:creator>Ray, Madeleine; Minton, Robert; Somale, Mariano A.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-08-4</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4040</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Mind the Gap: Announced versus Implied Tariff Rates in Recent Trade Policy Episodes</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103070</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In the past year, the U.S. has raised its tariffs on trading partners to a historic level. The tariff rate implied by actual tariff payments owed by importers, however, falls short of the tariff rate implied by announced policies (Gopinath and Neiman, 2026).]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103070</guid>
<dc:creator>Eck, Sydney; Ray, Madeleine; Mix, Carter; Hoang, Trang T.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-08-3</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4023</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>India and the Global Economy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103069</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[With a population of 1.4 billion, India is the world's most populous country. It is also now the world's fastest growing economy and is currently the 5th largest economy measured at current exchange rates, poised to overtake Japan and Germany in coming years (Figure 1). Yet its share in the world economy is nowhere near its 20 percent share of the world's population.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103069</guid>
<dc:creator>Robitaille, Patrice T.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-08-1</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4033</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>One Transitory Shock After Another: A speech at the David Kaserman Memorial Lecture, Department of Economics, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama., April 17, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103056</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103056</guid>
<dc:creator>Waller, Christopher J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-17</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>12</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Rural Communities: Worth the Investment: A speech at Strengthening America’s Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum, Washington, D.C., April 14, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103038</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103038</guid>
<dc:creator>Barr, Michael S.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-14</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>12</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Economic Outlook and the Labor Market: A speech at the College of Business Administration, University of Detroit Mercy, Detroit, Michigan., April 7, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103012</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103012</guid>
<dc:creator>Jefferson, Philip N.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-07</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>23</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Supporting Small Businesses: A speech at CBA LIVE 26, Consumer Bankers Association, San Diego, California., March 31, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103011</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103011</guid>
<dc:creator>Bowman, Michelle W.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-31</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>6</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Validating Large Language Model Annotations</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103001/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper proposes a validation framework for LLM-generated measurements when reliable benchmarks are unavailable. Validity is established by testing whether an LLM can reconstruct passages from annotated labels while maintaining semantic consistency with the original text. The framework avoids circular reasoning by establishing testable prerequisite properties that must be met for a validation to be considered successful. Application to news article data demonstrates that the framework serves as a practical alternative to human benchmarking, which offers advantages in objectivity, scalability, and cost-effectiveness while identifying cases where LLMs capture economic meaning that human evaluators miss.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103001/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Lundgaard Hansen, Anne</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-30</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>44 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Economic measurement; Machine learning; Unstructured data; Sentiment; Computational techniques</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-020</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.020</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>A User’s Guide to Reducing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103000/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[For the avoidance of doubt: 1) This catalogue presents and analyzes a variety of options for reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Nothing here is an endorsement of any specific policy option; this is a menu of options. Combined, we estimate these options open the door to balance sheet reduction of $1.2 to $2.1 trillion within the Fed’s current ample reserves framework. Further reductions would be possible with a return to scarce reserves. 2) The process of materially shrinking the balance sheet would require a great deal of implementation and rulemaking work in advance and will take time, at least a year and quite possibly several, before the Fed can begin shrinking its balance sheet. If undertaken, there are good reasons for moving slowly and gingerly, and to take steps to ensure financial markets are able to absorb the reissue of securities that roll off the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103000/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Anderson, Alyssa G.; Barbarino, Alessandro; Diercks, Anthony M.; Miran, Stephen I.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-26</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>51 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Monetary policy; Open market operations (OMO); Reserves; Federal Reserve balance sheet; Federal funds rate</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-019</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.019</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
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