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Jel Classification:J63 

Working Paper
Vacancy Chains

Replacement hiring—recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit—plays a central role in establishment dynamics. We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years at a time, despite facing substantial gross turnover in the form of quits. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-23

Report
Do informal referrals lead to better matches? Evidence from a firm's employee referral system

The limited nature of data on employment referrals in large business and household surveys has so far limited our understanding of the relationships among employment referrals, match quality, wage trajectories, and turnover. Using a new, firm-level data set that includes explicit information on whether a worker was referred by a current employee of the company, we are able to provide rich detail on these empirical relationships for a single U.S. corporation, and to test various predictions of theoretical models of labor market referrals. Predictions with which our results align include: 1) ...
Staff Reports , Paper 568

Journal Article
A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth

Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 10, 2022 , Pages 4

Working Paper
Employment Dynamics in a Signaling Model with Workers' Incentives

Many firms adjust employment in a "lumpy" manner -- infrequently and in large bursts. In this paper, I show that lumpy adjustments can arise from concerns about the incentives of remaining workers. Specifically, I develop a model in which a firm's productivity depends on its workers' effort and workers' income prospects depend on the firm's profitability. I use this model to analyze the consequences of demand shocks that are observed by the firm but not by its workers, who can only try to infer the firm's profitability from its employment decisions. I show that the resulting signaling model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-040

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve

This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Working Paper
Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort

We introduce a simple representation of endogenous search effort into the standard matching function with job-seeker heterogeneity. Using the estimated augmented matching function, we study the sources of changes in the average employment transition rate. In the standard matching function the contribution of market tightness (matching efficiency) is increasing (decreasing) in the matching function elasticity. For our augmented matching function search effort is pro-cyclical for small matching elasticity and accounts for most of the transition rate volatility, with small contributions from ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-24

Working Paper
The Hedgehog’s Curse: Knowledge Specialization and Displacement Loss

This paper studies the impact of knowledge specialization on earnings losses following displacement. We develop a novel measure of the specialization of human capital, based on how concentrated the knowledge used in an occupation is. Combining our measure with individual labor histories from the NLSY 79-97 and Norway’s LEED, we show that workers with more specialized human capital suffer larger earnings losses following exogenous displacement. A one standard deviation increase in pre-displacement knowledge specialization increases the earnings losses post-displacement by 3 to 4 pp per year ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-31

Working Paper
Competitors' Stock Price Reaction to Mass Layoff Announcements

Using data on layoff announcements by S&P 500 firms, we show that layoff announcements mostly contain industrywide news. Competitors? stock price reactions are positively correlated with the announcer?s returns. This contagion effect is stronger for competitors whose values depend on growth opportunities. When layoff announcements induce positive stock returns to announcers, competitors with positive R&D see a 1.15% increase in their returns. Conversely, when announcements induce negative reactions to announcers, competitors with high sales growth see a reduction of 1.09% in returns. Our ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1610

Working Paper
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves

The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, the misallocation of workers across space or across industries. We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch. We construct MSA-level unemployment rates and vacancy data using techniques similar to Barnichon (2010) and a new dataset of online help-wanted ads by MSA. We estimate regional Beveridge curves, identifying the slopes by restricting them to be equal across locations with similar labor market characteristics. We find that the 51 U.S. cities in our sample have four groupings ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-037

Report
Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Equilibrium Effects

Equilibrium labor market theory suggests that unemployment benefit extensions affect unemployment by impacting both job search decisions by the unemployed and job creation decisions by employers. The existing empirical literature focused on the former effect only. We develop a new methodology necessary to incorporate the measurement of the latter effect. Implementing this methodology in the data, we find that benefit extensions raise equilibrium wages and lead to a sharp contraction in vacancy creation and employment and a rise in unemployment.
Staff Reports , Paper 646

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