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Working Paper
Family characteristics and macroeconomic factors in U. S. intragenerational family income mobility, 1978–2014
Bradbury, Katharine L.
(2018-10-01)
Family economic mobility has been a policy concern for decades, with interest heating up further since the 1990s. Using data that tracks individual families? incomes during overlapping 10-year periods from 1978 through 2014, this paper investigates the relationships of factors ? family characteristics and macro influences ? to intragenerational mobility and whether the importance of those factors has changed over time. Family characteristics include both levels of work behavior and family structure and within-period changes in those factors, as well as time-invariant characteristics of the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-1
Journal Article
A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth
Bi, Huixin; Gulati, Chaitri; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose
(2022-08-10)
Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.
Economic Bulletin
, Issue August 10, 2022
, Pages 4
Journal Article
How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?
Webb, Anthony; Owyang, Michael T.; Sun, Wei; Friedberg, Leora
(2017)
Compared with prime-age workers, older workers face an easier path out of the labor force if they lose their jobs during a recession. However, premature job exits or earnings losses in the years leading up to retirement may be particularly devastating to retirement savings. The authors analyze the impact of recent business cycles on retirement using multifaceted job transitions of older workers. They focus on local labor markets because older workers are particularly unlikely to move for work. Surprisingly, the biggest effect of a higher local unemployment rate on older workers is to raise ...
Review
, Volume 99
, Issue 3
, Pages 259-78
Working Paper
The Hedgehog’s Curse: Knowledge Specialization and Displacement Loss
Hernandez Martinez, Victor; Holter, Hans; Pinheiro, Roberto
(2022-11-09)
This paper studies the impact of knowledge specialization on earnings losses following displacement. We develop a novel measure of the specialization of human capital, based on how concentrated the knowledge used in an occupation is. Combining our measure with individual labor histories from the NLSY 79-97 and Norway’s LEED, we show that workers with more specialized human capital suffer larger earnings losses following exogenous displacement. A one standard deviation increase in pre-displacement knowledge specialization increases the earnings losses post-displacement by 3 to 4 pp per year ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-31
Working Paper
Heterogeneous Responses to Job Mobility Shocks in a HANK Model with a Frictional Labor Market
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt
(2024-01)
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-001
Working Paper
Explaining Intergenerational Mobility: The Role of Fertility and Family Transfers
Kozlowski, Julian; Daruich, Diego
(2016-11-16)
Poor families have more children and transfer less resources to them. This suggests that family decisions about fertility and transfers dampen intergenerational mobility. To evaluate the quantitative importance of this mechanism, we extend the standard heterogeneous agent life cycle model with earnings risk and credit constraints to allow for endogenous fertility, family transfers, and education. The model, estimated to the US in the 2000s, implies that a counterfactual flat income-fertility profile would-through the equalization of initial conditions-increase intergenerational mobility by ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-011
Working Paper
Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails
Molloy, Raven S.; Smith, Christopher L.; Wozniak, Abigail
(2022-01-28)
We examine how the distribution of employment tenure has changed in aggregate and for various demographic groups, drawing links to trends in job stability and satisfaction. The fraction of workers with short tenure (less than a year) has been falling since at least the mid-1990s, consistent with the decline in job changing documented over this period. The decline in short-tenure was widespread across demographic groups, industry, and occupation. It appears to be associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly-held jobs and coincides with an increase in perceived job security among short ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers
, Paper 056
Working Paper
Training and Search on the Job
Lentz, Rasmus; Roys, Nicolas
(2015-10-30)
The paper studies human capital accumulation over workers? careers in an on the job search setting with heterogenous firms. In renegotiation proof employment con- tracts, more productive firms provide more training. Both general and specific training induce higher wages within jobs, and with future employers, even conditional on the future employer type. Because matches do not internalize the specific capital loss from employer changes, specific human capital can be over-accumulated, more so in low type firms. While validating the Acemoglu and Pischke (1999) mechanisms, the analysis ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2016-25
Report
Can low-wage workers find better jobs?
Abel, Jaison R.; Gabe, Todd M.; Florida, Richard
(2018-04-01)
There is growing concern over rising economic inequality, the decline of the middle class, and a polarization of the U.S. workforce. This study examines the extent to which low-wage workers in the United States transition to better jobs, and explores the factors associated with such a move up the job ladder. Using data covering the expansion following the Great Recession (2011-17) and focusing on short-term labor market transitions, we find that around 70 percent of low-wage workers stayed in the same job, 11 percent exited the labor force, 7 percent became unemployed, and 6 percent switched ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 846
Working Paper
The Effects of Racial Segregation on Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from Historical Railroad Placement
Chyn, Eric; Haggag, Kareem; Stuart, Bryan
(2023-09-05)
This paper provides new evidence on the causal impacts of citywide racial segregation on intergenerational mobility. We use an instrumental variable approach that relies on plausibly exogenous variation in segregation due to the arrangement of railroad tracks in the 19th century. Our analysis finds that higher segregation reduces upward mobility for Black children from households across the income distribution and White children from low-income households. Moreover, segregation lowers academic achievement while increasing incarceration and teenage birth rates. An analysis of mechanisms shows ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-18
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