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Working Paper
Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era
Pedemonte, Mathieu; Candia, Bernardo
(2021-11-08)
Flexible exchange rates can facilitate price adjustments that buffer macroeconomic shocks. We test this hypothesis using adjustments to the gold standard during the Great Depression. Using prices at the goods level, we estimate exchange rate pass-through. Using novel monthly data on city-level economic activity, combined with employment composition and sectoral export data, we show that American exporting cities were significantly affected by changes in bilateral exchange rates. With those results we calibrate a general equilibrium model to obtain aggregate effects from cross-sectional ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-11r
Working Paper
Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion
Luo, Yulei; Nie, Jun; Wang, Xiaowen; Young, Eric R.
(2021-08-02)
We propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty due to ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain four facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously: (i) the high volatility of production relative to sales, (ii) the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, (iii) the positive correlation between sales and inventories, and (iv) the negative correlation between the inventory-to-sales ratio and sales. We find that the stock-out avoidance motive (Kahn 1987) ...
Research Working Paper
, Paper RWP 21-05
Working Paper
Exchange rate pass-through in a competitive model of pricing-to-market
Auer, Raphael; Chaney, Thomas
(2009)
This paper extends the Mussa and Rosen (1978) model of quality-pricing under perfect competition. Exporters sell goods of different qualities to consumers who have heterogeneous preferences for quality. Production is subject to decreasing returns to scale and, therefore, supply and the toughness of competition react to cost changes brought about by exchange rate fluctuations. First, we predict that exchange rate shocks are imperfectly passed through into prices. Second, prices of low quality goods are more sensitive to exchange rate shocks than prices of high quality goods. Third, in response ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 23
Working Paper
SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis
Erceg, Christopher J.; Guerrieri, Luca; Gust, Christopher J.
(2005-07)
In this paper, we describe a new multi-country open economy SDGE model named "SIGMA" that we have developed as a quantitative tool for policy analysis. We compare SIGMA's implications to those of an estimated large scale econometric policy model (the FRB/Global model) for an array of shocks that are often examined in policy simulations. We show that SIGMA?s implications for the near-term responses of key variables are generally similar to those of FRB/Global. Nevertheless, some quantitative disparities between the two models remain due to certain restrictive aspects of SIGMA?s ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 835
Working Paper
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
(2019-11-27)
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as well as low U.S. real interest rates, along with a surge in global real economic activity. Quantifying these effects one at a time is difficult not only because of the close relationship between the interest rate and the exchange rate, but also because demand and supply shocks in the oil market in turn ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1914
Working Paper
Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness
Wei, Shang-Jin; Nie, Jun; Du, Qingyuan
(2020-02-03)
We propose a new channel to explain why developing countries may fail to benefit from financial globalization, based on labor market institutions. In our model, financial openness in a developing country with a rigid labor market leads to capital outflow, and both employment and output fall. In contrast, financial openness in a developing country with a flexible labor market benefits the country. Our model suggests that enhancing labor market flexibility is a complementary reform for developing countries opening capital accounts.
Research Working Paper
, Paper RWP 19-11
Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M.
(2023-10-14)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock led to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-018
Report
Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers
Akinci, Ozge; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Queraltó, Albert
(2022-05-01)
Foreign investors’ changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes transmit across borders, we propose a two-country macroeconomic framework. Our model features cross-border holdings of risky assets by U.S. financial intermediaries that operate under financial frictions and act as global intermediaries in that they take on foreign asset risk. In ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1016
Working Paper
Improving Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sanchez, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio; Yurdagul, Emircan
(2022-04-06)
The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in subsequent decades have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings. The global financial crisis and the recent global pandemic have further reignited this discussion among academics and policymakers. A key question about these policy proposals for debt restructurings that has proved hard to handle is how they influence the behavior of creditors and debtors. We address this challenge by evaluating policy proposals in a quantitative sovereign default model that ...
Working Paper
, Paper 22-06
Working Paper
Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sapriza, Horacio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Yurdagul, Emircan
(2018-06-25)
Sovereign debt crises involve debt restructurings characterized by a mix of face-value haircuts and maturity extensions. The prevalence of maturity extensions has been hard to reconcile with economic theory. We develop a model of endogenous debt restructuring that captures key facts of sovereign debt and restructuring episodes. While debt dilution pushes for negative maturity extensions, three factors are important in overcoming the effects of dilution and generating maturity extensions upon restructurings: income recovery after default, credit exclusion after restructuring, and regulatory ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-13
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Risk sharing 1 items
Robustness 1 items
SDGE model 1 items
Sectoral Allocation 1 items
Selection 1 items
Selective Defaults 1 items
Self-fulfilling financial crises 1 items
Sensitivity analysis 1 items
Small Open Economy Model 1 items
Small open economy 1 items
Social costs 1 items
Sovereign contagion 1 items
Spillover effects 1 items
Stabilization policy 1 items
Stagflation 1 items
Stationarity 1 items
Stochastic Volatility 1 items
Structural Scenario Analysis 1 items
Sudden Stop 1 items
Surges 1 items
Synchronization 1 items
Tariffs 1 items
Taste Shocks 1 items
Taxes 1 items
Technology Choice 1 items
Time-Varying Parameters 1 items
Trade Collapse 1 items
Trade balance 1 items
Trade linkages 1 items
Trilemma 1 items
U.S. manufacturing 1 items
U.S. trade deficit 1 items
Uncovered interest parity 1 items
United Kingdom 1 items
Vaccination 1 items
Volatility 1 items
Volatility Shocks 1 items
Wages 1 items
aggregation 1 items
asset markets and risk sharing 1 items
banking sector 1 items
boom-bust cycles 1 items
border effects 1 items
business 1 items
business cycle dynamics 1 items
capital accumulation 1 items
carry trade 1 items
climate change 1 items
commodity 1 items
commodity prices 1 items
competitiveness 1 items
credit boom 1 items
credit frictions 1 items
credit markets 1 items
currency crises 1 items
currency mismatch 1 items
currency premium 1 items
cyclicality of net capital ows 1 items
demographics 1 items
depressions 1 items
deregulation 1 items
disasters 1 items
dollar currency pricing 1 items
dollar-priced trade 1 items
downward nominal wage rigidity 1 items
dynamic panel data model 1 items
dynamics 1 items
elasticity puzzle 1 items
emerging economies 1 items
emerging economy business cycles 1 items
endogenous firm entry 1 items
enterprises 1 items
equilibrium 1 items
event studies 1 items
exchange 1 items
exchange rate regimes 1 items
exchange rate sensitivity 1 items
extensive margin 1 items
external debt opportunistic defaults 1 items
external imbalances 1 items
external sector 1 items
financial access and participation 1 items
financial stability policy 1 items
fintech entry 1 items
firm debt 1 items
firm entry 1 items
fiscal deficits 1 items
fiscal policy shocks 1 items
fixed exchange rates 1 items
foreign debt 1 items
foreign investments 1 items
fuel subsidies 1 items
global real activity 1 items
global supply chains 1 items
global value chains 1 items
gold standard 1 items
government expenditures 1 items
growth 1 items
heterogeneity 1 items
heterogeneous agent 1 items
house prices 1 items
import intensity 1 items
intellectual property rights 1 items
interest rate smoothing 1 items
international input-output linkages 1 items
international policy cooperation 1 items
international transmission of shocks 1 items
interstate banking 1 items
item replacement 1 items
labor force participation 1 items
labor migration 1 items
labor mobility 1 items
leverage 1 items
limited commitment constraints 1 items
local projections 1 items
markup dynamics 1 items
missing capital 1 items
monetary unions 1 items
money supply 1 items
multilateral trade 1 items
natural rates 1 items
news shocks 1 items
non-traded inflation 1 items
oil price 1 items
oil prices 1 items
onshoring 1 items
open economy macro 1 items
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