Home About Latest Browse RSS Advanced Search

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Working Paper
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States
Riccardo Colacito
Bridget Hoffman
Toan Phan

We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.

Download Full text
Cite this item
Riccardo Colacito & Bridget Hoffman & Toan Phan, Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Working Paper 18-9, 11 Apr 2018.
More from this series
JEL Classification:
Subject headings:
Keywords: economic growth; temperature; climate change
For corrections, contact Christian Pascasio ()
Fed-in-Print is the central catalog of publications within the Federal Reserve System. It is managed and hosted by the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Privacy Legal