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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Working Papers
Improving GDP measurement: a measurement-error perspective
S. Boragan Aruoba
Francis X. Diebold
Jeremy J. Nalewaik
Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song
Abstract

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties -- particularly as regards serial correlation -- differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.


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S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy J. Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, Improving GDP measurement: a measurement-error perspective, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Working Papers 13-16, 2013.
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Keywords: Income ; Expenditures; Public ; Business cycles ; Recessions
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