Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Safety, liquidity, and the natural rate of interest
Why are interest rates so low in the Unites States? We find that they are low primarily because the premium for safety and liquidity has increased since the late 1990s, and to a lesser extent because economic growth has slowed. We reach this conclusion using two complementary perspectives: a flexible time-series model of trends in Treasury and corporate yields, inflation, and long-term survey expectations, and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We discuss the implications of this finding for the natural rate of interest.
Cite this item
Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, Safety, liquidity, and the natural rate of interest, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports 812, 11 May 2017.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Keywords: natural rate of interest; r*; DSGE models; liquidity; safety; convenience yield
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fednsr:812
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