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Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Staff Reports
Unemployment benefits and unemployment in the Great Recession: the role of macro effects
Marcus Hagedorn
Fatih Karahan
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman
Abstract

We exploit a policy discontinuity at U.S. state borders to identify the labor market implications of unemployment benefit extensions. In contrast to the existing literature that focused on estimating the effects of benefit duration on job search decisions by the unemployed—the micro effect—we are guided by equilibrium labor market theory and focus on measuring the general equilibrium macro effect that operates through the response of job creation to benefit extensions. After developing a new methodology to measure the macro effect, we find that it is this effect that is very important quantitatively. In particular, benefit extensions raise equilibrium wages and lead to a sharp contraction in vacancy creation, lower employment, and a rise in unemployment.


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Marcus Hagedorn & Fatih Karahan & Iourii Manovskii & Kurt Mitman, Unemployment benefits and unemployment in the Great Recession: the role of macro effects, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports 646, 2013, revised 01 Feb 2015.
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Keywords: unemployment insurance; unemployment; employment; vacancies; wages; search; matching
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