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Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare
This paper develops an overlapping generations model to study the macroeconomic effects of an unexpected elimination of Medicare. We ﬁnd that a large share of the elderly respond by substituting Medicaid for Medicare. Consequently, the government saves only 46 cents for every dollar cut in Medicare spending. We argue that a comparison of steady states is insufficient to evaluate the welfare effects of the reform. In particular, we ﬁnd lower ex-ante welfare gains from eliminating Medicare when we account for the costs of transition. Lastly, we ﬁnd that a majority of the current population benefits from the reform but that aggregate welfare, measured as the dollar value of the sum of wealth equivalent variations, is higher with Medicare.
Cite this item
Juan Carlos Conesa & Daniela Costa & Parisa Kamali & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vegard Nygard & Gajen Raveendranathan & Akshar Saxena, Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Staff Report 548, 27 Apr 2017.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
Keywords: Medicare; Medicaid; Overlapping generations; Steady state; Transition path
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fedmsr:548
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