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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Working Papers
Reconstructing the great recession
Michele Boldrin
Carlos Garriga
Adrian Peralta-Alva
Juan M. Sánchez
Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of the construction sector in accounting for the performance of the U.S. economy before, during and after the Great Recession. We use input-output analysis to evaluate its linkages with the rest of the economy and measure the transmission of its demand shocks to the overall economy. Such effects are quantified by means of a dynamic multi-sector model parameterized to reproduce the boom-bust dynamics of employment in construction during 2000-13. The model suggests that the interlinkages account for a large share of the actual changes in aggregate employment and gross domestic product during the previous expansion, the recession and the subsequent recovery.


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Michele Boldrin & Carlos Garriga & Adrian Peralta-Alva & Juan M. Sánchez, Reconstructing the great recession, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Papers 2013-006, 15 Feb 2012, revised 21 Jan 2016.
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Keywords: Residential investment; multisector models; business cycle accounting
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