Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach
This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics and combining forecasts from different models helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons.
Cite this item
Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Papers 2005-059, 2007.
Keywords: Interest rates ; Forecasting
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-059
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