Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Research Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited
A large literature with canonical New Keynesian models has established that the Fed's policy change from a passive to an active response to inflation led to U.S. macroeconomic stability after the Great Inflation of the 1970s. We revisit this view by estimating a staggered price model with trend inflation using a Bayesian method that allows for equilibrium indeterminacy and adopts a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm.
The model empirically outperforms a canonical New Keynesian model and demonstrates an active response to inflation even in the Great Inflation era, during which the U.S. economy was likely in the indeterminacy region of the model's parameter space. A more active response to inflation alone does not suffice for explaining the shift to determinacy after the Great Inflation, unless it is accompanied by a decline in trend inflation or a change in policy responses to the output gap and output growth.
Cite this item
Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper RWP 17-1, 04 Jan 2017.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Keywords: Monetary policy; Great inflation; Equilibrium indeterminacy; Generalized New Keynesian Phillips curve; Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp17-01
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