Journal Article

A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment


Abstract: The author presented a new estimate of the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Based on this new estimate, the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.4 percentage point since 1994 and is currently 4.6 percent. Ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.

Keywords: Labor force; Employment; Labor market; Unemployment;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Part of Series: Macro Bulletin

Publication Date: 2017-11-29

Pages: 1-4