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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Economic Review
Globalization and global disinflation
Kenneth S. Rogoff
Abstract

Since the invention of money, pressure to finance government debt and deficits, directly or indirectly, has been the single most important driver of inflation. It is not at all clear, however, that improved fiscal policy has been the main driver of the recent disinflation. ; Whatever the explanation of global disinflation, the raw data are stunning. In recent years, inflation around the world has dropped to levels that, only two decades ago, seemed frustratingly unattainable. If one takes into account technical biases in the construction of the CPI, as well as central banks’ desire to maintain a small amount of padding to facilitate relative price adjustment and avoid deflation, then disinflation has already run its full course in most industrialized countries. In the developing world, if current trends persist—with the emphasis on “if”—inflation will be tamed within a decade.


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Kenneth S. Rogoff, "Globalization and global disinflation" , Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, issue Q IV, pages 45-78, 2003.
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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Fiscal policy ; Competition
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