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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Working Paper Series
The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries
Rajeev Dehejia
Rajeev Dehejia
Andrew Jordan
Cristian Pop-Eleches
Cyrus Samii
Karl Schulze
Abstract

This paper documents the evolving impact of childbearing on the work activity of mothers. Based on a compiled dataset of 441 censuses and surveys between 1787 and 2015, representing 103 countries and 48.4 million mothers, we document three main findings: (1) the effect of fertility on labor supply is small and typically indistinguishable from zero at low levels of development and economically large and negative at higher levels of development; (2) this negative gradient is remarkably consistent across histories of currently developed countries and contemporary cross-sections of countries; and (3) the results are strikingly robust to identification strategies, model specification, data construction, and rescaling. We explain our results within a standard labor-leisure model and attribute the negative labor supply gradient to changes in the sectoral and occupational structure of female jobs as countries develop.


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Rajeev Dehejia & Rajeev Dehejia & Andrew Jordan & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii & Karl Schulze, The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Working Paper Series WP-2017-14, 17 Sep 2017.
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Keywords: Twins; instrumental variables; development; economic history; fertility; labor supply
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