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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Perspectives
Forecasting inflation and the Great Recession
Marco Bassetto
Todd Messer
Christine Ostrowski
Abstract

This article shows how the recovery of inflation in 2009-10 occurred precisely at the only time (since 1985) the models would predict disinflation, i.e., inflation went up when the models said it should go down.


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Marco Bassetto & Todd Messer & Christine Ostrowski, "Forecasting inflation and the Great Recession" , Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives, issue Q III, pages 79-106, 2013.
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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Recessions
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