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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
International Finance Discussion Papers
Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting
Neil R. Ericsson
Abstract

This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.


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Neil R. Ericsson, Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), International Finance Discussion Papers 695, 2000.
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Keywords: Forecasting ; Econometrics ; Econometric models
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