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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
International Finance Discussion Papers
Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones
Robert P. Flood
Andrew K. Rose
Donald J. Mathieson
Abstract

In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System is then used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. While some statistical evidence of non-linearities in conditional means of exchange rates is detected, these seem to have little economic content. A number of implications of existing "target zone" exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing models of limited exchange rate flexibility.


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Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), International Finance Discussion Papers 388, 1990.
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Keywords: European Economic Community ; Foreign exchange rates
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