Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises
We examine the role of U.S. monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. U.S. monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the U.S., either in the form of trade links or significant share of USD-denominated liabilities. Conversely, if a country is integrated globally, rather than having a direct exposure, the effect is ambiguous. One possible channel we identify is capital flows: If the correction in capital flows is disorderly (e.g., sudden stops), the probability of banking crises increases. These findings suggest that the effect of U.S. monetary policy in global banking crises is not uniform and largely dependent on the nature of linkages with the U.S.
Cite this item
Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-039, 28 May 2019.
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Keywords: banking crises ; financial stability ; monetary policy shocks ; sudden stop
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-39
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