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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions
Zheng Sun
Ashley W. Wang
Lu Zheng
Abstract

We provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets, but is not persistent following strong markets. Specifically, we construct two performance measures, DownsideReturns and UpsideReturns, conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector returns. After adjusting for risks, funds in the highest DownsideReturns quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by about 7% in the subsequent year, whereas funds with better UpsideReturns do not outperform subsequently. The DownsideReturns can predict future fund performance over a horizon as long as 3 years, for both winners and losers, and for funds with few share restrictions.


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Zheng Sun & Ashley W. Wang & Lu Zheng, Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-030, Mar 2016.
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Keywords: Conditional performance ; Hedge funds ; Performance Persistence
DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.030
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