Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Working Paper Series
Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A Favar Approach
Exchange rate shocks have mixed effects on economic activity in both theory and empirical VAR models. In this paper, we extend the empirical literature by considering the implications of a positive shock to the U.S. dollar in a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model for the U.S. and three large Asian economies: Korea, Japan and China. The FAVAR framework allows us to represent a country’s aggregate economic activity by a latent factor, generated from a broad set of underlying observable economic indicators. To control for global conditions, we also include in the FAVAR a “global conditions index,” which is another latent factor generated from the economic indicators of major trading partners. We find that a dollar appreciation shock reduces economic activity and inflation not only for the U.S. economy, but also for all three Asian economies. This result, which is robust to a number of alternative specifications, suggests that in spite of their disparate economic structures and policy regimes, the dollar appreciation shock affects the Asian economies primarily through its impact on U.S. aggregate demand; and this demand channel dominates the expenditure-switching channel that affects a country’s export competitiveness.
Cite this item
Zheng Liu & Mark M. Spiegel & Andrew Tai, Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A Favar Approach, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series 2016-30, 14 Nov 2016.
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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