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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Working Paper Series
Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update
Andrew K. Rose
Mark M. Spiegel
Abstract

We update Rose and Spiegel (2010a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.


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Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series 2011-02, 2011.
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Keywords: Global financial crisis ; Econometric models
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