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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Working Paper Series
Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models
Andrew T. Levin
Alexei Onatski
John C. Williams
Noah Williams
Abstract

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data and then determine the policy under commitment that maximizes household welfare. We find that the performance of the optimal policy is closely matched by a simple operational rule that focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably robust to uncertainty about the model parameters and to various assumptions regarding the nature and incidence of the innovations. However, the characteristics of optimal policy are very sensitive to the specification of the wage contracting mechanism, thereby highlighting the importance of additional research regarding the structure of labor markets and wage determination.


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Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series 2005-15, 2005.
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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics ; Microeconomics
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