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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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The recent shift in term structure behavior from a no-arbitrage macro-finance perspective
Glenn D. Rudebusch
Tao Wu
Abstract

This paper examines a recent shift in the dynamics of the term structure and interest rate risk. We first use standard yield-spread regressions to document such a shift in the U.S. in the mid-1980s. Over the pre- and post-shift subsamples, we then estimate dynamic, affine, no-arbitrage models, which exhibit a significant difference in behavior that can be largely attributed to changes over time in the pricing of risk associated with a “level” factor. Finally, we suggest a link between the shift in term structure behavior and changes in the risk and dynamics of the inflation target as perceived by investors.


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Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, The recent shift in term structure behavior from a no-arbitrage macro-finance perspective, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series 2004-25, 2004.
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Keywords: Interest rates ; Monetary policy ; Econometric models
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