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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Working Paper Series
Quantifying embodied technological change
Plutarchos Sakellaris
Daniel J. Wilson
Abstract

We estimate the rate of embodied technological change directly from plant-level manufacturing data on current output and input choices along with histories on their vintages of equipment investment. Our estimates range between 8 and 17 percent for the typical U.S. manufacturing plant during the years 1972-1996. Any number in this range is substantially larger than is conventionally accepted with some important implications. First, the role of investment-specific technological change as an engine of growth is even larger than previously estimated. Second, existing producer durable price indices do not adequately account for quality change. As a result, measured capital stock growth is biased. Third, if accurate, the Hulten and Wykoff (1981) economic depreciation rates may primarily reflect obsolescence.


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Plutarchos Sakellaris & Daniel J. Wilson, Quantifying embodied technological change, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series 2001-16, 2001.
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Keywords: Technology ; Productivity
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