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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
Future recession risks: an update
Travis J. Berge
Early Elias
Òscar Jordà
Abstract

In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S. recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami demonstrated that the U.S. economy is vulnerable to outside disruptions. Updated forecasts suggest that the probability of a U.S. recession has remained elevated and may have increased over the past year, in part because of foreign financial and economic crises.


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Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, "Future recession risks: an update" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 35, 2011.
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Keywords: Recessions
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