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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index
David Lang
Kevin J. Lansing
Abstract

The current economic recovery is proceeding at a tepid pace despite massive federal fiscal stimulus and extremely low interest rates. Forecasts derived from business cycle indicators produced by the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks predict that real U.S. GDP growth through the first half of 2011 will remain at or below potential. If these forecasts prove accurate, then the historical relationship between real GDP growth and the labor market suggests that the unemployment rate could rise by as much as 0.5 percentage point during this period.


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David Lang & Kevin J. Lansing, "Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 29, 2010.
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Keywords: Economic forecasting - United States ; Business cycles ; Unemployment
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