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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
Disagreement about the inflation outlook
Sylvain Leduc
Glenn D. Rudebusch
Justin Weidner
Abstract

Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy communications strategy.


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Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, "Disagreement about the inflation outlook" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 31, 2009.
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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Economic forecasting
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