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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?
Regis Barnichon
Geert Mesters
Abstract

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a very low level at the end of 2016, raising the question of whether the labor market has become too tight. After applying a new method to adjust for demographic changes in the labor force, the current unemployment rate is still 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point higher than at past labor market peaks. This indicates that the labor market may not be quite as tight as the headline unemployment rate suggests.


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Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, "How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 07, 2017.
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