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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
Are wages useful in forecasting price inflation?
Rhys Bidder
Abstract

Labor costs constitute a substantial share of business expenses, and it is natural to expect wages to be an important determinant of prices. However, research suggests that wages do not contain much useful information for forecasting price inflation that is not available from other indicators. Therefore, one should not infer too much from recent wage data regarding the future path of inflation.


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Rhys Bidder, "Are wages useful in forecasting price inflation?" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 33, 2015.
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