Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in gross state product. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes, particularly general business activity and growth rate of orders, are useful in predicting changes in Texas employment.
Cite this item
Jesus Canas & Emily Kerr, Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers 1416, 01 Dec 2014.
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
- L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
Keywords: Manufacturing; Surveys; Forecasting
This item with handle RePEc:fip:feddwp:1416
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