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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Working Papers
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance
Jesus Canas
Emily Kerr

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in gross state product. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes, particularly general business activity and growth rate of orders, are useful in predicting changes in Texas employment.

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Jesus Canas & Emily Kerr, Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers 1416, 01 Dec 2014.
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Keywords: Manufacturing; Surveys; Forecasting
DOI: 10.24149/wp1416
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Fed-in-Print is the central catalog of publications within the Federal Reserve System. It is managed and hosted by the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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