Home About Latest Browse RSS Advanced Search

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Globalization Institute Working Papers
Structural Change and Global Trade
Logan T. Lewis
Ryan Monarch
Michael J. Sposi
Jing Zhang

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth in world trade to GDP by 16 percentage points over this period. This magnitude is similar to how much declining trade costs have boosted openness. Moreover, structural change dampens the measured gains from trade by incorporating endogenous responses of expenditure shares to the trade regime. Ongoing structural change implies declining openness, even absent rising protectionism.

Download Revision 2
Download Revision 1
Download Original paper
Cite this item
Logan T. Lewis & Ryan Monarch & Michael J. Sposi & Jing Zhang, Structural Change and Global Trade, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers 333, 01 Jan 2018, revised 01 Apr 2018.
More from this series
JEL Classification:
Subject headings:
Keywords: Globalization; structural change; international trade
DOI: 10.24149/gwp333r2
For corrections, contact Amy Chapman ()
Fed-in-Print is the central catalog of publications within the Federal Reserve System. It is managed and hosted by the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Privacy Legal