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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Globalization Institute Working Papers
Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty
Saroj Bhattarai
Arpita Chatterjee
Woong Yong Park
Abstract

We study spillover effects of US uncertainty fluctuations using panel data from fifteen emerging market economies (EMEs). A US uncertainty shock negatively affects EME stock prices and exchange rates, raises EME country spreads, and leads to capital outflows from them. Moreover, it decreases EME output, while increasing their consumer prices and net exports. The negative effects on output, exchange rates, and stock prices are weaker, but the effects on capital and trade flows stronger, for South American countries compared to other EMEs. We present a model of a small open economy that faces an external shock to interpret our findings.


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Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Woong Yong Park, Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers 331, 01 Nov 2017.
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DOI: 10.24149/gwp331
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