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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Globalization Institute Working Papers
Measuring the World Natural Rate of Interest
Mark A. Wynne
Ren Zhang
Abstract

This paper makes the first attempt to estimate the time-varying natural rate jointly with the output gap and trend potential output growth for the world as a whole using a simple unobserved components model broadly following the methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003). We find that the world natural rate has been trending down for the past few decades. Nearly half of the variation in the natural rate is accounted for by the trend potential output growth rate. However, the relationship between the world natural interest rate and the world trend growth is modest and not statistically significant.


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Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, Measuring the World Natural Rate of Interest, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers 315, 01 Jun 2017, revised 01 Jun 2017.
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DOI: 10.24149/gwp315
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