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Globalization Institute Working Papers
Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?
This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a U.S. dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the U.S. dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed U.S. dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and reserve compositions mostly kept secret, the identification strategy of the paper is to analyse the market impact on major currency pairs of official statements made by EME policy-makers about their exchange rate regime and reserve composition. Developing a novel database for 18 EMEs, we find that such statements not only have a statistically but also an economically significant impact on the euro, and to a lesser extent the yen against the U.S. dollar. The findings suggest that communication hinting at a weakening of EMEs' U.S. dollar focus contributed substantially to the appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar in recent years. Interestingly, EME policy-makers appear to have become more cautious in their communication more recently. Overall, the results underscore the growing systemic importance of EMEs for global exchange rate configurations.
Cite this item
Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers 25, 2009.
Note: Published as: Fratzscher, Marcel and Arnaud Mehl (2009), "Do China and Oil Exporters Influence Major Currency Configurations?," Journal of Comparative Economics 37 (3): 335-358.
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This item with handle RePEc:fip:feddgw:25
is also listed on EconPapers
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