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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Globalization Institute Working Papers
A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)
Valerie Grossman
Adrienne Mack
Enrique Martinez-Garcia
Abstract

The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is aimed at standardizing and disseminating world economic indicators for the study of globalization. It includes a core sample of 40 countries with available indicators and broad coverage for quarterly real GDP, and the monthly series of industrial production (IP), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), merchandise exports and imports, headline CPI, CPI (ex. food and energy), PPI/WPI inflation, nominal and real exchange rates, and official/policy interest rates (see Grossman, Mack, and Martínez-García (2013)). This paper aims to codify in a systematic way the chronology of global business cycles for DGEI. We propose a novel chronology based on IP data for a sample of 84 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until now, and assess the turning points obtained as a signal of the underlying state of the economy as tracked by the indicators of DGEI. We conclude by proposing and also evaluating global recession probability forecasts up to 12 months ahead. The logit model proposed uses the DGEI aggregate indicators to offer advanced warning of turning point in the global cycle—by this metric a global downturn in 2013 does not appear likely.


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Valerie Grossman & Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martinez-Garcia, A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers 169, 31 Jan 2014.
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Note: Published as: Valerie Grossman, Adrienne Mack and Enrique Martínez-García (2015), "A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics 46: 170-185.
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DOI: 10.24149/gwp169
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