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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Economic Letter
Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?
Alan Armen
Tyler Atkinson

Based on experience with national unemployment, analysts have viewed sharply higher state joblessness as signaling possible further deterioration. However, analyses indicate increasing state-level unemployment by itself does not indicate a recession, and that applying rule-of-thumb properties regarding recession to state economies is misguided.

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Alan Armen & Tyler Atkinson, "Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?" , Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic Letter, volume 11, issue 8, pages 1-4, July 2016.
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