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Working Papers (Old Series)
A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law
Okun’s law is an empirical relationship that measures the correlation between the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate and the deviation of output growth from its potential. In this paper, we estimate Okun’s coefficients for each U.S. state and examine the potential factors that explain the heterogeneity of the estimated Okun relationships. We find that indicators of more flexible labor markets (higher levels of education achievement in the population, lower rate of unionization, and a higher share of nonmanufacturing employment) are important determinants of the differences in Okun’s coefficient across states. Finally, we show that Okun’s relationship is not stable across specifications, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of the potential determinants of Okun’s coefficient.
Cite this item
Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Papers (Old Series) 1523, 21 Oct 2015.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
Keywords: correlated unobserved components; potential output; natural rate of unemployment
This item with handle RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1523
is also listed on EconPapers
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