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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Economic Commentary
What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?
Mark E. Schweitzer
Murat Tasci
Abstract

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has tied its asset purchases to a “substantial improvement” in labor market conditions. While we don’t speculate on what the FOMC means by substantial improvement, we do explore the level of monthly job gains that would gradually deliver the underlying trend unemployment rate within a reasonable timeframe, under several plausible scenarios. We find that the path of monthly job gains, which is highly dependent on a few key parameters, is likely to be smaller than the path associated with previous recoveries.


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Mark E. Schweitzer & Murat Tasci, "What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?" , Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary, issue Jun, 2013.
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Keywords: Labor market ; Federal Open Market Committee
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