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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Economic Commentary
Mirror, mirror, who’s the best forecaster of them all?
Michael F. Bryan
Linsey Molloy
Abstract

Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What’s your best bet—the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it’s tough to consistently beat the median prediction.


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Michael F. Bryan & Linsey Molloy, "Mirror, mirror, who’s the best forecaster of them all?" , Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary, issue Mar, 2007.
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Keywords: Economic forecasting
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