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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Economic Commentary
An option for anticipating Fed action
John B. Carlson
William R. Melick
Erkin Y. Sahinoz
Abstract

Options contracts on federal funds futures, a new financial instrument introduced earlier this year, can be analyzed to gauge public expectations of future Fed actions. The real bonus is that they can detect differences of opinion when markets see more than two possible outcomes for an FOMC meeting as well as the likelihood associated with each.


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John B. Carlson & William R. Melick & Erkin Y. Sahinoz, "An option for anticipating Fed action" , Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary, issue Sep, 2003.
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Keywords: Options (Finance) ; Federal funds rate ; Federal Open Market Committee
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