On December 12, 2019, Fed in Print will introduce its new platform for discovering content. Please direct your questions to Anna Oates

Home About Latest Browse RSS Advanced Search

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
Transparency, expectations, and forecasts
Andrew Bauer
Robert A. Eisenbeis
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha
Abstract

In 1994, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began to release statements after each meeting. This paper investigates whether the public’s views about the current path of the economy and of future policy have been affected by changes in the Federal Reserve’s communications policy as reflected in private sector’s forecasts of future economic conditions and policy moves. In particular, has the ability of private agents to predict where the economy is going improved since 1994? If so, on which dimensions has the ability to forecast improved? We find evidence that the individuals’ forecasts have been more synchronized since 1994, implying the possible effects of the FOMC’s transparency. On the other hand, we find little evidence that the common forecast errors, which are the driving force of overall forecast errors, have become smaller since 1994.


Download Full text
Cite this item
Andrew Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, Transparency, expectations, and forecasts, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-03, 2006.
More from this series
JEL Classification:
Subject headings:
For corrections, contact Elaine Clokey ()
Fed-in-Print is the central catalog of publications within the Federal Reserve System. It is managed and hosted by the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Privacy Legal