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Working Paper
Structural Change in Labor Supply and Cross-Country Differences in Hours Worked
Tsujiyama, Hitoshi; Lagakos, David; Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola
(2022-05-11)
This paper studies how structural change in labor supply along the development spectrum shapes cross-country differences in hours worked. We emphasize two main forces: sectoralreallocation from self-employment to wage work, and declining fixed costs of wage work. We show that these forces are crucial for understanding how the extensive margin (the employment rate) and intensive margin (hours per worker) of aggregate hours worked vary with income per capita. To do so we build and estimate a quantitative model of labor supply featuring a traditional self-employment sector and a modern ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-006
Working Paper
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Karabarbounis, Marios; Dupor, Bill; Mehkari, M. Saif; Kudlyak, Marianna
(2018-12-26)
We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in the Nielsen scanner data and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases local non-durable consumer spending by $0.29 and local auto spending by $0.09. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multiregional, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2018-04
Working Paper
The impact of student loan debt on small business formation
Ma, Shuwei; Cordell, Lawrence R.; Ambrose, Brent W.
(2015-07-01)
Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy and account for approximately one-half of the private-sector economy and 99% of all businesses. To start a small business, individuals need access to capital. Given the importance of an entrepreneur?s personal debt capacity in financing a startup business, student loan debt, which is difficult to discharge via bankruptcy, can have lasting effects and may have an impact on the ability of future small business owners to raise capital. This study examines the impact of the growth in student debt on net small business formation. We find a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 15-26
Working Paper
Cyclical Labor Income Risk
Nakajima, Makoto; Smirnyagin, Vladimir
(2019-09-16)
We investigate cyclicality of variance and skewness of household labor income risk using PSID data. There are five main findings. First, we find that head?s labor income exhibits countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness. Second, the cyclicality of hourly wages is muted, suggesting that head?s labor income risk is mainly coming from the volatility of hours. Third, younger households face stronger cyclicality of income volatility than older ones, although the level of volatility is lower for the younger ones. Fourth, while a second earner helps lower the level of skewness, it does not ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-34
Working Paper
Why Does Consumption Fluctuate in Old Age and How Should the Government Insure it?
De Nardi, Mariacristina; Borella, Margherita
(2020-10-23)
In old age, consumption can fluctuate because of shocks to available resources and because health shocks affect utility from consumption. We find that even temporary drops in income and health are associated with drops in consumption and most of the effect of temporary drops in health on consumption stems from the reduction in the marginal utility from consumption that they generate. More precisely, after a health shock, richer households adjust their consumption of luxury goods because their utility of consuming them changes. Poorer households, instead, adjust both their necessary and luxury ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers
, Paper 40
Working Paper
Targeted business incentives and the debt behavior of households
Millimet, Daniel; Di, Wenhua
(2016-01-01)
The empirical effects of place-based tax incentive schemes designed to aid low-income communities are unclear. While a growing number of studies find beneficial effects on employment, there is little investigation into other behaviors of households affected by such programs. We analyze the impact of the Texas Enterprise Zone Program on household debt and delinquency. Specifically, we utilize detailed information on all household liabilities, delinquencies, and credit scores from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, a quarterly longitudinal 5% random sample of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1602
Working Paper
Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt
(2021-11)
We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unemployed, especially when the unemployed are divided along eligibility and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We study the implications of this heterogeneity on UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off using a heterogeneous-agent job-search model capable of matching the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recipients from non-recipients. Insurance benefits are larger for UI recipients who are predominantly wealth-poor. Meanwhile, incentive costs are nonmonotonic in wealth because the poorest individuals, who value ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-022
Working Paper
Family and Government Insurance: Wage, Earnings, and Income Risks in the Netherlands and the U.S.
Fella, Giulio; De Nardi, Mariacristina
(2020-10-26)
We document new facts about risk in male wages and earnings, household earnings, and pre- and post-tax income in the Netherlands and the United States. We find that, in both countries, earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. Individual-level male wage and earnings risk is relatively high at the beginning and end of the working life, and for those in the lower and upper parts of the income distribution. Hours are the main driver of the negative skewness and, to a lesser extent, the high kurtosis of earnings changes. Even though we find no ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers
, Paper 42
Working Paper
Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement?
De Nardi, Mariacristina; Jones, John Bailey; French, Eric; McGee, Rory
(2021-05-25)
While the savings of retired singles tend to fall with age, those of retired couples tend to rise. We estimate a rich model of retired singles and couples with bequest motives and uncertain longevity and medical expenses. Our estimates imply that while medical expenses are an important driver of the savings of middle-income singles, bequest motives matter for couples and high-income singles, and generate transfers to non-spousal heirs whenever a household member dies. The interaction of medical expenses and bequest motives is a crucial determinant of savings for all retirees. Hence, to ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers
, Paper 49
Working Paper
Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?
Baker, Scott R.; Kueng, Lorenz; McGranahan, Leslie; Melzer, Brian T.
(2018-10-16)
When the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate binds, monetary policy makers may lack traditional tools to stimulate aggregate demand. We investigate whether ?unconventional? fiscal policy, in the form of pre-announced consumption tax changes, has the potential to meaningfully shift durables purchases intertemporally and how it is affected by consumer credit. In particular, we test whether car sales react in anticipation of future sales tax changes, leveraging 57 pre-announced changes in state sales tax rates from 1999-2017. We find evidence for substantial tax elasticities, with car ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2018-16
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