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Working Paper
Institutional Herding and Its Price Impact : Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market
Cai, Fang; Li, Yi; Li, Dan; Han, Song
(2016-10)
Among growing concerns about potential financial stability risks posed by the asset management industry, herding has been considered as an important risk amplification channel. In this paper, we examine the extent to which institutional investors herd in their trading of U.S. corporate bonds and quantify the price impact of such herding behavior. We find that, relative to what is documented for the equity market, the level of institutional herding is much higher in the corporate bond market, particularly among speculative-grade bonds. In addition, mutual funds have become increasingly likely ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-091
Working Paper
The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets
Scotti, Chiara; Carapella, Francesca; Rappoport, David E.; Baughman, Garth; Swem, Nathan; Vardoulakis, Alexandros
(2022-08)
The value of assets in the digital ecosystem has grown rapidly, amid periods of high volatility. Does the digital financial system create new potential challenges to financial stability? This paper explores this question using the Federal Reserve’s framework for analyzing vulnerabilities in the traditional financial system. The digital asset ecosystem has recently proven itself highly fragile. However adverse digital asset markets shocks have had limited spillovers to the traditional financial system. Currently, the digital asset ecosystem does not provide significant financial services ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2022-058
Journal Article
The Gordon Gekko effect: the role of culture in the financial industry
Lo, Andrew W.
(2016-08)
Culture is a potent force in shaping individual and group behavior, yet it has received scant attention in the context of financial risk management and the 2007-09 financial crisis. This article presents a brief overview of the role of culture as it is seen by psychologists, sociologists, and economists, and then describes a specific framework for analyzing culture in the context of financial practices and institutions. Using this framework, the author addresses three questions: (1) what is culture? (2) does it matter? and (3) can it be changed? He illustrates the utility of this framework by ...
Economic Policy Review
, Issue Aug
, Pages 17-42
Working Paper
Self-fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry
Verani, Stéphane; Narajabad, Borghan N.; Foley-Fisher, Nathan
(2015-03-25)
Is liquidity creation in shadow banking vulnerable to self-fulfilling runs? Investors typically decide to withdraw simultaneously, making it challenging to identify self-fulfilling runs. In this paper, we exploit the contractual structure of funding agreement-backed securities offered by U.S. life insurers to institutional investors. The contracts allow us to obtain variation in investors' expectations about other investors' actions that is plausibly orthogonal to changes in fundamentals. We find that a run on U.S. life insurers during the summer of 2007 was partly due to self-fulfilling ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2015-32
Working Paper
Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion
Alvarez, Fernando; Barlevy, Gadi
(2014-04-28)
This paper analyzes the welfare implications of mandatory disclosure of losses at financial institutions when it is common knowledge that some banks have incurred losses but not which ones. We develop a model that features contagion, meaning that banks not hit by shocks may still suffer losses because of their exposure to banks that are. In addition, we assume banks can profitably invest funds provided by outsiders, but will divert these funds if their equity is low. Investors thus value knowing which banks were hit by shocks to assess the equity of the banks they invest in. We find that when ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2014-4
Working Paper
Bank Runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing
Amador, Manuel; Bianchi, Javier
(2021-10-15)
We present a tractable dynamic macroeconomic model of self-fulfilling bank runs. A bank is vulnerable to a run when a loss of investors’ confidence triggers deposit withdrawals and leads the bank to default on its obligations. We analytically characterize how the vulnerability of an individual bank depends on macroeconomic aggregates and how the number of banks facing a run affects macroeconomic aggregates in turn. In general equilibrium, runs can be partial or complete, depending on aggregate leverage and the dynamics of asset prices. Our normative analysis shows that the effectiveness of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 785
Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Results from a Tabletop Exercise
Rosen, Richard J.; Musatov, Alex; Prescott, Edward Simpson; Duffy, Denise; Kovner, Anna; Tallarini, Thomas D.; Yang, Emily; Haubrich, Joseph G.; Zlate, Andrei; Vardoulakis, Alexandros
(2019-05-21)
This paper presents a tabletop exercise designed to analyze macroprudential policy. Several senior Federal Reserve officials were presented with a hypothetical economy as of 2020:Q2 in which commercial real estate and nonfinancial debt valuations were very high. After analyzing the economy and discussing the use of monetary and macroprudential policy tools, participants were then presented with a hypothetical negative shock to commercial real estate valuations that occurred in the second half of 2020. Participants then discussed the use of the tools during an incipient downturn. Some of the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-11
Report
Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability
Liang, J. Nellie; Adrian, Tobias
(2014-09-01)
We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an intertemporal trade-off between improving current financial conditions and increasing future financial vulnerabilities. In the United States, structural and cyclical macroprudential tools to reduce vulnerabilities at banks are being implemented, but they may not be sufficient because activities can migrate and there are limited tools for nonbank intermediaries and for borrowers. While monetary policy itself can influence ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 690
Report
Capital Requirements and Bailouts
Stefanidis, Georgios; Perri, Fabrizio
(2017-08-31)
We use balance sheet data and stock market data for the major U.S. banking institutions during and after the 2007-8 financial crisis to estimate the magnitude of the losses experienced by these institutions because of the crisis. We then use these estimates to assess the impact of the crisis under alternative, and higher, capital requirements. We find that substantially higher capital requirements (in the 20% to 30% range) would have substantially reduced the vulnerability of these financial institutions, and consequently they would have significantly reduced the need of a public bailout.
Staff Report
, Paper 554
Working Paper
Endogenous Debt Maturity and Rollover Risk
Brancati, Emanuele; Macchiavelli, Marco
(2016-09-09)
We challenge the common view that short-term debt, by having to be rolled over continuously, is a risk factor that exposes banks to higher default risk. First, we show that the average effect of expiring obligations on default risk is insignificant; it is only when a bank has limited access to new funds that maturing debt has a detrimental impact on default risk. Next, we show that both limited access to new funds and shorter maturities are causally determined by deteriorating market expectations about the bank's future profitability. In other words, short-term debt is not a cause of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-074
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